Dividend Growth Forum
What Did You Buy Today? - Printable Version

+- Dividend Growth Forum (http://DividendGrowthForum.com)
+-- Forum: Dividend Growth Investing (http://DividendGrowthForum.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=15)
+--- Forum: Dividend Growth Investing (http://DividendGrowthForum.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=33)
+--- Thread: What Did You Buy Today? (/showthread.php?tid=699)

Pages: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 120 121 122 123 124 125 126 127 128 129 130 131 132 133 134 135 136 137 138 139 140 141 142 143 144 145 146 147 148 149 150 151 152 153 154 155 156 157 158 159 160 161 162 163 164 165 166 167 168 169 170 171 172 173 174 175 176 177 178 179 180 181 182 183 184 185 186 187 188 189 190 191 192 193 194 195 196 197 198 199 200 201 202 203 204 205 206 207 208 209 210 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 220 221 222 223 224 225 226 227 228 229 230 231 232 233 234 235 236 237 238 239 240 241 242 243 244 245 246 247 248 249 250 251 252 253 254 255 256 257 258 259 260 261 262 263 264 265 266 267 268 269 270 271 272 273 274 275 276 277 278 279 280 281 282 283 284 285 286 287 288 289 290 291 292 293 294 295 296 297 298 299 300 301 302 303 304 305 306 307 308 309 310 311 312 313 314 315 316 317 318 319 320 321 322 323 324 325 326 327 328 329 330 331 332 333 334 335 336 337 338 339 340 341 342 343 344 345 346 347 348 349 350 351 352 353 354 355 356 357 358 359 360 361 362 363 364 365 366 367 368 369 370 371 372 373 374 375 376 377 378 379 380 381 382 383 384 385 386 387 388 389 390 391 392 393 394 395 396 397 398 399 400 401 402 403 404 405 406 407 408 409 410 411 412 413 414 415 416 417 418 419 420 421 422 423 424 425 426 427 428 429 430 431 432 433 434 435 436 437 438 439 440 441 442 443 444 445 446 447 448 449 450 451 452 453 454 455 456 457 458 459 460 461 462 463 464 465 466 467 468 469 470 471 472 473 474 475 476 477 478 479 480 481 482 483 484 485 486 487 488 489 490 491 492 493 494 495 496 497 498 499 500 501 502 503 504 505 506 507 508 509 510 511 512 513 514 515 516 517 518 519 520 521 522 523 524 525 526 527 528 529 530 531 532 533 534 535 536 537 538 539 540 541 542 543 544 545 546 547 548 549 550 551 552 553 554 555 556 557 558 559 560 561 562 563 564 565 566 567 568 569 570 571 572 573 574 575 576 577 578 579 580 581 582 583 584 585 586 587 588 589 590 591 592 593 594 595 596 597 598 599 600 601 602 603 604 605 606 607 608 609 610 611 612 613 614 615 616 617 618 619 620 621 622 623 624 625 626 627 628 629 630 631 632 633 634 635 636 637 638 639 640 641 642 643 644 645 646 647 648 649 650 651 652 653 654 655 656 657 658 659 660 661 662 663 664 665 666 667 668 669 670 671 672 673 674 675 676 677 678 679 680 681 682 683 684 685 686 687 688 689 690 691 692 693 694 695 696 697 698 699 700 701 702 703 704 705 706 707 708 709 710 711 712 713 714 715 716 717 718 719 720 721 722 723 724 725 726 727 728 729 730 731 732 733 734 735 736 737 738 739 740 741 742 743 744 745 746 747 748 749 750 751 752 753 754 755 756 757 758 759 760 761 762 763 764 765 766 767


RE: What Did You Buy Today? - fenders53 - 09-13-2019

(09-13-2019, 06:08 PM)stockguru Wrote: I would never buy MMM. They are no longer a growth company. And as long as tariffs are a threat, they will continue to suffer and hit new lows. I don’t need a graph to tell me that lol. Yes it’s cone off the lows but that won’t last. Just a rotation going on right now.

Thanks for the info. I will have to check them out.  

I sill say MCD hits $230 by years end.

And you could very be well be right Guru.  And it might be sub $150 next recession.  We can't know that of course.  What we CAN do is have the good sense to understand risk/reward, and keep our bets small when appropriate.   

LOL, I'll shut up as soon as you pull up a 20yr chart on INTC, CSCO and PFE and imagine an investment around 1999-2000 .  They were all can't lose stocks, pay any price.  That was the modern equivalent of AMZN, AAPL and JNJ safe.  You couldn't go wrong, right up until it didn't work anymore.


RE: What Did You Buy Today? - fenders53 - 09-13-2019

(09-13-2019, 06:12 PM)stockguru Wrote: Here’s another example. A lot of you bought ABBV and GILD $10-15 higher then where there trading at now. I heard there so cheap? Trading at historic low PE. That didn’t work out too well lol. Just saying you never know. Sometimes it’s a crap shoot.

It's often a crap shoot more often than it isn't when you try to pick the bottom on a stock where the fundamentals have changed.  You'd have to be delusional to think ABBV is in the same situation as it was years ago when patents on a blockbuster drug were in the far distant future.  I'm still trying to nibble a position selling ABBV puts, but I know I am buying damaged goods for now, and the price isn't quite the smoking deal a historical price chart might suggest.  Thye have work to do, and I believe they have the resources to succeed.  And of course the stupid good dividend for now.


RE: What Did You Buy Today? - Otter - 09-13-2019

I really like this recent article by Chuck Carnevale, explaining his philosophy on value at time of purchase. He is far more eloquent and a more effective writer when it comes to conveying these concepts than I could ever hope to be:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4290081-time-market-value-investing-market-timing

Short-term fluctuations in price don’t really concern me on a long-term time horizon. I will never buy any stock at the absolute bottom. That’s market timing. I can’t do that. All I can do is decide if value is fair or better at the time of purchase.

A stock that is 30% above its long-term average P/E, with a current price 7% higher than where it should be with a historically average P/E in more than two years carries too high of a value risk for how I analyze purchases. When that stock is forecast to grow earnings by only single-digit percentages over the next two years, that coupled with the current low yield indicates to me that the income stream I will be purchasing is not the best use of capital I can make. If MCD had a current yield like T, or was forecasting 25% annualized growth, my opinion would certainly change.


RE: What Did You Buy Today? - Otter - 09-13-2019

(09-13-2019, 06:04 PM)fenders53 Wrote: Agree MCD is way overvalued.  Rode it up for 40 quick points but pigs get slaughtered.  I'll wait for re-entry.  I only had to wait 15 years for a couple stocks to get me back to even.  It's going to be more like 20+ for INTC and CSCO.  Sure I sell some stocks too early, or never buy them.  I'll take that over avoiding port devastation.   It only has to happen to you once.   MMM is a good recent example of a stock that could take a decade to get back to even.  KMI is loved here.  Five years later and it is still under 50% of it's last peak, and we just had a couple decent oil price years that may or may not be ending for awhile.  Paying a huge premium for a mature company will get you burned.  It's not 1970 anymore for stocks like MCD and DIS.  You can't just pay any price.

fenders, you just need to build out that portfolio to 90+ stocks, then you don’t ever have to worry about portfolio devastation.  Big Grin


RE: What Did You Buy Today? - stockguru - 09-13-2019

(09-13-2019, 07:22 PM)Otter Wrote: I really like this recent article by Chuck Carnevale, explaining his philosophy on value at time of purchase. He is far more eloquent and a more effective writer when it comes to conveying these concepts than I could ever hope to be:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4290081-time-market-value-investing-market-timing

Short-term fluctuations in price don’t really concern me on a long-term time horizon. I will never buy any stock at the absolute bottom. That’s market timing. I can’t do that. All I can do is decide if value is fair or better at the time of purchase.

A stock that is 30% above its long-term average P/E, with a current price 7% higher than where it should be with a historically average P/E in more than two years carries too high of a value risk for how I analyze purchases. When that stock is forecast to grow earnings by only single-digit percentages over the next two years, that coupled with the current low yield indicates to me that the income stream I will be purchasing is not the best use of capital I can make. If MCD had a current yield like T, or was forecasting 25% annualized growth, my opinion would certainly change.
T and MCD don’t belong in the same sentence. How dare you lol. T has way too much debt and is at the sane price it was 5 years ago. It has 6% yield for a reason. Everyone has there own opinion. It’s what  makes a market. For every seller there’s a buyer. MCD has had a lot of funds buy in recently even above $220. So while some say it’s over valued, others see opportunity 

I wish I bought AMZN and NFLX 5 years ago when they were over valued. Heck they don’t even have a PE lol.


RE: What Did You Buy Today? - Otter - 09-13-2019

(09-13-2019, 07:50 PM)stockguru Wrote:
(09-13-2019, 07:22 PM)Otter Wrote: I really like this recent article by Chuck Carnevale, explaining his philosophy on value at time of purchase. He is far more eloquent and a more effective writer when it comes to conveying these concepts than I could ever hope to be:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4290081-time-market-value-investing-market-timing

Short-term fluctuations in price don’t really concern me on a long-term time horizon. I will never buy any stock at the absolute bottom. That’s market timing. I can’t do that. All I can do is decide if value is fair or better at the time of purchase.

A stock that is 30% above its long-term average P/E, with a current price 7% higher than where it should be with a historically average P/E in more than two years carries too high of a value risk for how I analyze purchases. When that stock is forecast to grow earnings by only single-digit percentages over the next two years, that coupled with the current low yield indicates to me that the income stream I will be purchasing is not the best use of capital I can make. If MCD had a current yield like T, or was forecasting 25% annualized growth, my opinion would certainly change.
T and MCD don’t belong in the same sentence. How dare you lol. T has way too much debt and is at the sane price it was 5 years ago. It has 6% yield for a reason. Everyone has there own opinion. It’s what  makes a market. For every seller there’s a buyer. MCD has had a lot of funds buy in recently even above $220. So while some say it’s over valued, others see opportunity 

I wish I bought AMZN and NFLX 5 years ago when they were over valued. Heck they don’t even have a PE lol.

Haha. T may not be the best example, but people who bought recently in the 20s probably are pretty happy with their imaginary paper gains. The yield back then, though! Debt is always concerning, and credit rating is absolutely one of my purchase/value criteria (I prefer BBB+ or better)

I have a lot of overvalued holdings at the moment that I’m not adding to. LMT, TGT, and VFC immediately come to mind. I’ll definitely buy more if they ever get cheaper, but the bear market right now mostly appears to be in Industrials, agribiz, community banks, and materials. Stocks like ADM, CAT (avoided for a long time, started a position today), NUE, CTBI, CFR, and a couple others appear to be where the value is right now. Prices are better when the headlines are doom and gloom. If the world stops needing steel, mass-produced food/feedstock, industrial equipment, and banks that invest locally, we’ll all have bigger problems than where the S&P is at.


RE: What Did You Buy Today? - stockguru - 09-13-2019

The what if’s lol. Just like OXY, FDX, PM, BMO, WBA and SPG. Just to name a few I bought in recent weeks.

I own TGT but bought at $66.


RE: What Did You Buy Today? - fenders53 - 09-13-2019

We can go round and round about this. I do learn many things from you youngin's lol. I don't mind being disagreed with, in fact I welcome it. My scar tissue remains and I do try to realize I hit a special set of circumstances during the tech bubble. . I thought I was somewhat diversified but the entire market was over-valued. The dotcom startups made the major tech stocks look fairly valued. It wasn't so. I was a kid then. I tuned the stock market out for a couple years, then slowly moved dead money into JNJ and XEL, and left my MSFT alone. Put now substantial new money into the SPX for quite a long time. That all turned out to be a good move. MSFT is the only stock where patience paid off, but it took way too long. How long before CSCO runs up another 60% and gets to 80. When will INTC hit 75? Those were the highs 20 years ago. Those are not exactly junk companies. That's my "valuation matters" lesson I won't ever forget, or stop sharing. Holding a stock 25 yrs to get back to even isn't good investing.


RE: What Did You Buy Today? - stockguru - 09-13-2019

Lol I don’t hold loser stocks that long lol. I won’t invest in INTC because that business is too up and down. Slower PC sales more so then not, AMD new chips also put a damper on them. We all have losers. I don’t have the patience to wait it out once a company disappoints me One too many times. Good example I had bought IBM around $190 a while back. The company changed and I didn’t like the CEO and her acquisitions. So I sold at $176 and it still hasn’t recovered.


RE: What Did You Buy Today? - NilesMike - 09-13-2019

Just remembered this thread. Maybe it offers some perspective.
http://dividendgrowthforum.com/showthread.php?tid=622&highlight=mcd


RE: What Did You Buy Today? - fenders53 - 09-14-2019

(09-13-2019, 10:06 PM)stockguru Wrote: Lol I don’t hold loser stocks that long lol. I won’t invest in INTC because that business is too up and down.  Slower PC sales more so then not,  AMD new chips also put a damper on them. We all have losers. I don’t have the patience to wait it out once a company disappoints me One too many times. Good example I had bought IBM around $190 a while back. The company changed and I didn’t like  the CEO and her acquisitions. So I sold at $176 and it still hasn’t recovered.

This was around the time that when stock forums were new.  I remember reading and repeating the following... 

"Nobody has ever sold INTC and been happy they did a year later".  That was a very true statement at the time.  Same pretty much applied to CSCO and MSFT.  They were absolutely dominant companies.  They survived because they were.  BTW, I agree with you on IBM.  You have to be patient to succeed at this, but you have to listen to the little voice when it tells you to dig deeper because the growth story has fundamentally changed.

Back to our topic, I've survived two nasty corrections in my investing life.  MCD is regarded as a recession stock.  We'll see if that applies if it enters at a PE north of 25.  My little voice says it will get crushed like any other high flyer.  Sure, it will rise from the ashes.  It was in the 150's last year when I bought some.  Market sentiment is fickle.  MCD hasn't changed so much in under 12 months.


RE: What Did You Buy Today? - crimsonghost747 - 09-16-2019

Sold Entertainment one.

They are being acquired, I've been waiting almost a month for a second, higher offer to emerge but it's been very quiet so might as well grab my money and deploy it elsewhere. It's just my luck that a new, significantly higher bid will come out tomorrow. Big Grin

Not exactly sure what I'll put that money into, but I'll figure it out today/tomorrow.