Phillip Morris International

[Kerim]

(03-19-2015, 11:36 AM)Roadmap2Retire Wrote: The market is definitely on the upswing in China - where there are more than 350M smokers. That market is off-limits to investors though, since its dominated by the government run CNTC. Im sure theres a small part of the market which is fought over by the international brands.

I think PM has some kind of partnership with CNTC?

[Be Here Now]

(03-19-2015, 12:43 PM)Kerim Wrote:

(03-19-2015, 11:36 AM)Roadmap2Retire Wrote: The market is definitely on the upswing in China - where there are more than 350M smokers. That market is off-limits to investors though, since its dominated by the government run CNTC. Im sure theres a small part of the market which is fought over by the international brands.

I think PM has some kind of partnership with CNTC?

Yes. But PM gets very little of its volume from the PRC, and according to this article, the PRC is trying to discourage smoking:

http://247wallst.com/consumer-products/2...vertising/

[crimsonghost747]

Well I just let go of my position in PM. The long term risks are just too big in my opinion. On the short term, the quarterly report will come out tomorrow and while I don't think there will be any massive surprises such as the possible dividend cut so many analysts love to keep talking about, I think the strong dollar will have a pretty significant impact. I've been pondering about selling for a long time and decided I'll do it before the report comes out. More about risk management than anything else, I'm satisfied with the price I got today. Tomorrow we will see if I made the right choice in selling today instead of tomorrow.

[Kerim]

(04-15-2015, 10:00 AM)crimsonghost747 Wrote: Well I just let go of my position in PM. The long term risks are just too big in my opinion. On the short term, the quarterly report will come out tomorrow and while I don't think there will be any massive surprises such as the possible dividend cut so many analysts love to keep talking about, I think the strong dollar will have a pretty significant impact. I've been pondering about selling for a long time and decided I'll do it before the report comes out. More about risk management than anything else, I'm satisfied with the price I got today. Tomorrow we will see if I made the right choice in selling today instead of tomorrow.

I know that most of us do not sell lightly -- I hope the trade works out for you. I still believe in PM as a long-term holding, but certainly understand your discomfort. Most of all you need to be able to sleep well at night, and sounds like you are taking the steps you need to.

[Kerim]

Really nice earnings report from PM this morning. Up over 7 percent as I type this! I guess it makes sense -- that 5 percent yield is huge, and this report provides some relief that the company isn't in such serious trouble, so people want to pile back in.

1:30 pm update -- now 9 percent! Holy cow.

[Dividend Watcher]

(04-16-2015, 08:55 AM)Kerim Wrote: Really nice earnings report from PM this morning. Up over 7 percent as I type this! I guess it makes sense -- that 5 percent yield is huge, and this report provides some relief that the company isn't in such serious trouble, so people want to pile back in.

I thought of you when I checked in this morning. I was going to slowly edge further in to PM as the price has been coming down. I've been cautious with the currency headwinds thinking I can buy it cheaper.

At least the dividend reinvested the other day. My token solace.

[crimsonghost747]

Well this backfired on me. Still very concerned about the long term risks but obviously by taking a small risk I would have gotten an extra 8%. Ohh well, live and learn.

Haven't gone through the whole report, but from the small stuff SA newsletters are dropping into my inbox I gather.

Q1 EPS of $1.16 (down $0.02 Y/Y)
Revenue of $6.62B (-4.3% Y/Y)
Revenue down in all geographic sectors except for South America & Canada.
Cigarette volume rose 1.4% to 198.8B in Q1.
FY2015 Guidance: Diluted EPS: $4.32 to $4.42

Though I guess most of that is simply due to the currency exchange rates. If that situation solves itself then they should be doing really well in the future, but if it doesn't then the payout ratio starts to get uncomfortably high.

[Roadmap2Retire]

Its crazy. Revenue down YoY. Earnings down YoY. Stock shoots up 8%. This is madness.

ps: I realize that investors were expecting worse numbers and thats why its up

[navyasw02]

(04-16-2015, 01:17 PM)Roadmap2Retire Wrote: Its crazy. Revenue down YoY. Earnings down YoY. Stock shoots up 8%. This is madness.

ps: I realize that investors were expecting worse numbers and thats why its up

I stopped trying to understand market rationale after buying MAT. They're bleeding money and stock prices jump 6% in after hours because it wasnt quite as bad as expected. Makes as much sense as being thankful you got shot by a 9mm instead of a .38.

[Main Street Stock Investor]

Not much luck predicting the market in this camp. PM is one of my holdings and I continually build positions in each of my holdings when the price seams reasonable. My last partial position purchase of PM was on Jan 7, 2015 at $82.04/share. PM was also on my radar to buy at $75, but that didn't work out. I was tempted to sell the pop for a profit, but decided to wait. If PM hits $90 +/- as it did in July 2014, I will sell that partial position and book the profit. In the meantime, we can all enjoy the juicy dividend of 4.7%.

M$$I

[EricL]

Here's an article I wrote about Philip Morris's new product iQOS. It's a new e-cig technology that has been released in Japan and Italy to pretty good reviews. I think it could be an important part of new growth for the company as it has less impactful health effects on its users.

It also expects to submit test results to FDA later this year and apply for its use as a Modified Risk Tobacco Product that will clear the way for its introduction into the US. Altria would be the distributor for US sales.

Philip Morris International: iQOS Introduction A Game Changer For Growth

Long PM, MO, RAI.

[DividendGarden]

I've learned to stop trying to predict...I'm no good at it. I just try to play the best probabilities. Even if you predict earnings, you can't predict market reactions.

Edit: this was in response to earlier posts in this thread, not Eric's article.