2022 Perfect Portfolio Competition

[ken-do-nim]

(12-16-2021, 01:05 PM)fenders53 Wrote:

(12-16-2021, 11:43 AM)ken-do-nim Wrote: Tacos!!!!

I do have a lot of money tied up in RETL.  So ... go retail!  Get out there everyone and buy stuff!!!

I think that one may go sideways to slightly down into end of year.  I suspect Christmas sales are fine, but the market looks ahead.  I need to scroll back and see what Kblake picked. I suspect Chad has AAPL and maybe some oil IIRC?

I do suspect you are right on that.  I'm not really expecting RETL to catch fire again until there's an announcement that the supply chain crisis is nearing an end.

At any rate, I will make sure my 2022 competition picks bear a much stronger resemblance to my actual portfolio.

[fenders53]

(12-16-2021, 01:53 PM)ken-do-nim Wrote:

(12-16-2021, 01:05 PM)fenders53 Wrote:

(12-16-2021, 11:43 AM)ken-do-nim Wrote: Tacos!!!!

I do have a lot of money tied up in RETL.  So ... go retail!  Get out there everyone and buy stuff!!!

I think that one may go sideways to slightly down into end of year.  I suspect Christmas sales are fine, but the market looks ahead.  I need to scroll back and see what Kblake picked. I suspect Chad has AAPL and maybe some oil IIRC?

I do suspect you are right on that.  I'm not really expecting RETL to catch fire again until there's an announcement that the supply chain crisis is nearing an end.

At any rate, I will make sure my 2022 competition picks bear a much stronger resemblance to my actual portfolio.

I'm not predicting a crash, but retail is probably out of gas until inflation takes a breather.  We can all waste a couple hundred extra on holiday gifts because it comes once a year,  But I'm not paying an extra 15% to upgrade appliances unless it's broken, or build a garden shed that can wait when building materials are spiking again. 

Next year I vote we start the contest DEC 1st.  May not happen this year for the first time, but normally the Santa Claus rally is making us buy high.  We can make it a Thanksgiving event while people have a few days off.

[ken-do-nim]

I'm not saying I expect any deflation, but i do doubt that prices can keep rising like this. It just has to slow down!

I'll get my picks in this weekend.

[divmenow]

(12-16-2021, 03:59 PM)fenders53 Wrote:

(12-16-2021, 01:53 PM)ken-do-nim Wrote:

(12-16-2021, 01:05 PM)fenders53 Wrote:

(12-16-2021, 11:43 AM)ken-do-nim Wrote: Tacos!!!!

I do have a lot of money tied up in RETL.  So ... go retail!  Get out there everyone and buy stuff!!!

I think that one may go sideways to slightly down into end of year.  I suspect Christmas sales are fine, but the market looks ahead.  I need to scroll back and see what Kblake picked. I suspect Chad has AAPL and maybe some oil IIRC?

I do suspect you are right on that.  I'm not really expecting RETL to catch fire again until there's an announcement that the supply chain crisis is nearing an end.

At any rate, I will make sure my 2022 competition picks bear a much stronger resemblance to my actual portfolio.

I'm not predicting a crash, but retail is probably out of gas until inflation takes a breather.  We can all waste a couple hundred extra on holiday gifts because it comes once a year,  But I'm not paying an extra 15% to upgrade appliances unless it's broken, or build a garden shed that can wait when building materials are spiking again. 

Next year I vote we start the contest DEC 1st.  May not happen this year for the first time, but normally the Santa Claus rally is making us buy high.  We can make it a Thanksgiving event while people have a few days off.

Retail will come back. This is temporary and if there's one thing I know. Women will always buy crap no matter how bad it gets    My wife gets like 10-12 packages a week from Old Navy, Amazon, Target and Macy's. So I don't see people that are going to stop spending at all. Once a year??? Not in my house. It's Christmas every day 

Home repairs will slow down. I have home repairs to do but refuse to buy wood, paint, doors and things like that until prices come down. Ridiculous what they are charging there days. But during inflation homes do well. 

I actually added some TGT today. I add on big dips.

MDLZ and HRL have done well this month. Great inflations stocks

[ChadR]

Nice to see that for once I'm finally doing good in this contest. After back to back cellar dweller years, I have a chance to pull a 1991 Braves and Twins worst to first season.

Need to start looking at my picks for next year.

[fenders53]

"Normal"dividend stocks just weren't working well since we started this Chad. There will probably come a year where the market is about even and a couple growthy stocks put you back in the pack.

[Kerim]

All right -- my 2022 picks. Putting my money where my mouth is, and (again) swinging for the fences!

BEN
BTI
FB
VIAC
WFC

BONUS (and baseless) PREDICTION: We'll be getting another special dividend from BEN in 2022. The last one was in Q2 2018, and it was a whopping $3 per share. It is growing AUM and EPS fast (mainly through acquisition, I think), the payout ratio is nice and low (in the neighborhood of 30 percent). But the annual dividend raise was nonetheless really conservative. This is totally how they always seem to play it -- don't commit or create unrealistic expectations and financial constraints with the quarterly dividend, but reward shareholders periodically with extra divvy when appropriate. I haven't dug into their financials much yet, so maybe they're cash-starved from the Lexington buy, in which case I'm out of luck. But we'll see!

[Scooterd]

I may want to play , But confused with the rules. (I do understand this year you want to eliminate ETF's )

Q. Does that include also CEF's ETN's, REIT's, Limited Partnerships?

Secondly, The math does not not seem to be adding add up for me (perhaps it's just me).

For Example
I pulled the 2021 spreadsheet and to use the first entry on the sheet as an example -
I have listed Total Return YTD (as of 12/17) beside each security.

Q. I am not understanding how "Column average gain" was derived using "Present Market YTD Total return (12/17) data" for each security

ABBV Total Return YTD 26.66%
KMI Total Return YTD 21.83%
ORC Total Return YTD -4.11% (mortgage REIT)
RETL Total Return YTD 81.82% (ETF)
USDP Total Return YTD 58.72% (Limited Partnership)

Column Average Gain 29.49%

I derive average Total Return YTD for this basket of securities (12/17) is 36.98% (Again it may just be me).

For an identical basket of securities, The Total return will always be higher than that of the price return.
It will be so due to the additional payouts by way of dividends.

[fenders53]

(12-18-2021, 03:13 PM)Scooterd Wrote: I may want to play , But confused with the rules. (I do understand this year you want to eliminate ETF's )

Q. Does that include also CEF's ETN's, REIT's, Limited Partnerships?

Secondly, The math does not not seem to be adding add up for me (perhaps it's just me).

For Example
I pulled the 2021 spreadsheet and to use the first entry on the sheet as an example -  
I have listed Total Return YTD (as of 12/17) beside each security.

Q.  I am not understanding how "Column average gain" was derived using "Present Market YTD Total return (12/17) data" for each security  

ABBV Total Return YTD 26.66%
KMI  Total Return YTD 21.83%
ORC Total Return  YTD -4.11% (mortgage REIT)
RETL Total Return YTD 81.82% (ETF)
USDP Total Return YTD 58.72% (Limited Partnership)

Column Average Gain 29.49%

I derive average Total Return YTD for this basket of securities (12/17) is 36.98% (Again it may just be me).

For an identical basket of securities, The Total return will always be higher than that of the price return.
It will be so due to the additional payouts by way of dividends.

First of all you have to play. You are here everyday and already our eFriend .  After Christmas I start busting knee caps on other threads and make people play.  

Yes we are going to eliminate ETFs.  I love them for my personal port, but it removes some of the the skill out of this.  I definitely wanted to remove leveraged ETFs.  Not that I mind if Ken wins lol, but he could pick say a triple leveraged sector ETF.  That sector explodes.  Ken picks four other stocks that are fairly flat, and he might still beat most of the other players who picked five better performing stocks.         

As far as the scoring, we'll definitely have a look.  I didn't pay attention to who posted the last update.  Portfolio visualizer isn't fool proof.  To be honest the first few years this wasn't competitive enough to matter if it was perfect.  Dividends do count in your score.  They probably shouldn't be dripped for the contest calculation.  I'm OK with either way though.  A lot of years they will just be the tie breaker in a tight contest.  Somebody will usually pick a few hot stocks and win on CAP appreciation alone.  It hasn't happened yet, but if a company does a complicated spin off and the spins pay a dividend too, or a large special dividend a calculator can't handle.  We'll just have a "meeting" and reach an agreement on the true value of that initial investment if you held it until end of year without selling anything.

And don't forget you may have one growth stock with no dividend. That's a normal thing for a DGI investor to do. If you don't you will likely lose because one or more contestants are likely to get lucky and pick a fast mover stock that beats the market by 25%.

[ken-do-nim]

Hmm... controversy! For what it's worth, here's how I'd do the math on the numbers today (Dec 18):

ABBV ... 22.88% price gain + 4.35% yield = 27.23%
KMI ... 15.04% price gain + 6.92% yield = 21.96%
ORC ... -14.65% price gain + 17.85% yield = 3.2%
RETL ... 89.39% price gain
USDP ... 51.36% price gain + 9.46% yield = 60.82%

Average: 40.52%

(I didn't understand the system at the start of the contest last year, regarding whether dividends were counted or not, which is why 4 of my 5 picks had high yield.)

********

Here are my 2022 picks, and I'm just picking the top 5 stocks I should have the most money in after my 2022 buying plan is complete.

AAPL
AVGO
MSFT
ORCL
STX

(Currently OXLC and HTGC are ahead of a few of those, but after I meet my targets and tech stocks return to form, they will fall behind, with NVDA & TGT being in sixth-seventh place.)

[Scooterd]

First of all you have to play.  You are here everyday and already our eFriend .  After Christmas I start busting knee caps on other threads and make people play.       - Fenders53
>
Well this might be fun. I have not played the "Total Return" game in years. My portfolio is old stodgy and pretty consistent. Just slow and steady plods along. Though we can all be surprised from time to time I can pretty well gauge how my portfolio is going to react overall under different Market conditions.  It never achieves the highs of market highs, but also never experience the lows of Market lows, Bull or Bear.

But if I'm going to play (I do need whats left of my rickety old knees) I'm going to put some money where my picks are. I will Invest 1000.00 real monies per investment selection. This way I can have fun tracking "real life total return" investments, and bore everyone here whining on how pitiful my selections were at the beginning of the year through all of 2022  

Only 5 securities will be tough, 7-10 would have taken a bit of the pressure off , But 5 it is!!.

I'm not overly competitive (except when it comes to the Packers) so I will not worry so much about winning. I plan to stick to my wheelhouse and avoid CEF's, NFT's, REIT'S, MLP's, BDC's, Crypto and any other non dividend payers, and stick to what I believe to be my somewhat sphere of competence. So now I guess I have more homework to do (aside from if I was going to add PSX as a long term investment in 2022), having to consider totally different Total return type metrics (for the sake of my knee caps !!!) .....

- Scoot

[Scooterd]

(12-18-2021, 06:18 PM)ken-do-nim Wrote: Hmm... controversy!  For what it's worth, here's how I'd do the math on the numbers today (Dec 18):

ABBV ... 22.88% price gain + 4.35% yield = 27.23%

I believe you are using Forward DIV Yield in your Calculation

• Trailing dividends equal the total dividends paid per common share of a firm during a specific preceding period. (Trailing 12 months)
  

• Forward dividends are an estimate those that are expected to be paid out at a specific point in the future. (Future 12 Months)
  

ABBV -
Start Date Jan-01-2020, Start Price $102.27
End Date Dec-17-2021,End Price $129.53
Total Return YTD 26.66% 
Annualized Return YTD 26.66%

Morningstar has Trailing Div Yield at 4.01%,
Zacks list Trailing Div Yield at 4.01%,
My Calculator has Trailing Div Yield at 3.95%


Darn calculators ......The plot Thickens!! I still say it was Col Mustard in the living room with the candlestick

- Scoot