Top Ten 2022 Predictions.

[fenders53]

I am entertained when I see some of my prognostications on the forum that prove ridiculous in only six months.  I've dusted off my crystal ball and will share my top ten.  I'll try to not be so vague that I can't be wrong.  Join in with your own if you care to, or at least disagree with a few of mine.  
 
1.  No real market crash this year, but I believe straight up is over.  I give the market a 70% chance of ending the year positive, though I think it might be under a 10% gain.  I think the market will be choppier than last with many sector swings.  
 
2.  Two small interest rate hikes, three max, then the FED gets cold feet.  Inflation tames itself well enough anyway by the third quarter. 
 
3.  Big tech is still unstoppable, it finishes up on the year.
 
4.  Small Cap indexes will recover soon, maybe beat SPY for the year.
 
5.  Oil will see $110 by summer, then settle back to $80 by winter and more supply trickles online.  Oil stocks may not run a lot higher, but they will print money.
 
6.  Traders may have fun with the more speculative re-opening stocks like cruise lines but those balance sheets are in trouble.
 
7.  I like restaurants and ABNB to outperform SPY.
 
8.  SPACs have one more run, then only a few will live on and be relevant.  SOFI and a few others have a chance.            
 
9.  I will retire by June 1rst and go fishing more in cool places, if I have to rent my house out, pick up cans in the ditch and live in a cheap RV.  Yeah, it’s that important.
 
10.  The Packers will not win the Superbowl. 

[Kerim]

Nice.

I agree especially with your #3.

I'll repeat my prediction that BEN will issue a special dividend in 2022.

And add my vague sense that -- even if covid evaporated entirely tomorrow -- 2022 is still gonna kinda suck because it is an election year.

[fenders53]

I'm pretty sure we could pre-write the top five headlines that will move the markets for a few days. And they will recycle them every few weeks. We can't predict pandemics and rogue nation shenanigans, but mostly Buffett is right. It's just a distraction if you invest in sound companies.

[divmenow]

I disagree with lots of your crystal ball lol. Dream big

Expectations should be low this year with Biden in office. Tech will not be the leader this year. and will struggle. Everyone loves tech and every joe says buy the dips. I think those people are in for a let down. Growth will slow. I will take the other side.

Packers will win it all. The NFC sucks this year and the Pack are the team to beat, especially with home field advantage. The Cowboys and Bucs don't have the offense to over come 35 points to beat them. Bucs and Cowboys too many injuries' at the WR position. I don't trust the Rams running game or the Cards. My prediction Packers over Titans.

If the market rolls over then small caps will also. They wont outperform the large and mid caps. (No way lol)

Oil, Drugs and Silver will be the big winners (That's my crystal ball lol)

Restaurants I do like CBRL, TXRH and DRI

I'm going to call you Cousin Eddie from XMAS Vacation. Just don't light a Match

[fenders53]

(01-03-2022, 05:56 PM)divmenow Wrote: I disagree with lots of your crystal ball lol. Dream big

Expectations should be low this year with Biden in office. Tech will not be the leader this year. and will struggle. Everyone loves tech and every joe says buy the dips. I think those people are in for a let down. Growth will slow. I will take the other side.

Packers will win it all. The NFC sucks this year and the Pack are the team to beat, especially with home field advantage.  The Cowboys and Bucs don't have the offense to over come 35 points to beat them. Bucs and Cowboys too many injuries' at the WR position. I don't trust the Rams running game or the Cards. My prediction Packers over Titans.

If the market rolls over then small caps will also. They wont outperform the large and mid caps. (No way lol)

Oil, Drugs and Silver will be the big winners (That's my crystal ball lol)

Restaurants I do like CBRL, TXRH and DRI

I'm going to call you Cousin Eddie from XMAS Vacation. Just don't light a Match

I'd be disappointed if you didn't. Sell your silver fast if it pops for a week.  I own lots of drugs and oil so hope you are right.  Market just rocked about the third best year in the last 25 with Biden.  President doesn't matter much.  Packers won't win the Superbowl.

[stockguru]

(01-03-2022, 06:10 PM)fenders53 Wrote:

(01-03-2022, 05:56 PM)divmenow Wrote: I disagree with lots of your crystal ball lol. Dream big

Expectations should be low this year with Biden in office. Tech will not be the leader this year. and will struggle. Everyone loves tech and every joe says buy the dips. I think those people are in for a let down. Growth will slow. I will take the other side.

Packers will win it all. The NFC sucks this year and the Pack are the team to beat, especially with home field advantage.  The Cowboys and Bucs don't have the offense to over come 35 points to beat them. Bucs and Cowboys too many injuries' at the WR position. I don't trust the Rams running game or the Cards. My prediction Packers over Titans.

If the market rolls over then small caps will also. They wont outperform the large and mid caps. (No way lol)

Oil, Drugs and Silver will be the big winners (That's my crystal ball lol)

Restaurants I do like CBRL, TXRH and DRI

I'm going to call you Cousin Eddie from XMAS Vacation. Just don't light a Match

I'd be disappointed if you didn't. Sell your silver fast if it pops for a week.  I own lots of drugs and oil so hope you are right.  Market just rocked about the third best year in the last 25 with Biden.  President doesn't matter much.  Packers won't win the Superbowl.

Actually presidents do matter. You will witness just how bad it will get mid year. Unless the republican's gain the seats back it will get bad. I'm not even in politics and don't even care who's in the white house comfy chair lol but I can see the democrats running this country into the ground. You watch just how bad it will get. It wouldn't surprise me if we end down at years end. I just see the signs! They had everything handed to them on a silver platter and let it slip away. In no way was I a trump fan but at the least he had a handle on things. The old man Biden cant even stand up on his own 2 feet    

And Biden had nothing to do with the market hitting highs. It's the leftover rally from what Trump had in place. Biden has done nothing yet except miss his promises. God help us all   I just watched CNN and they were trouncing him on all the lies. They said he only cares about himself.

I like the Packers as well. Care to wager? lol

Silver is interesting. Jim Rodgers top sector for 2022. 

Do the opposite of Fenders and you will beat the S&P. every time    NEE has gained 20 points since he sold. Can NEM and CLF do the same 

I sold VSTO today at $48.50. Fenders got that one right.. Nice job!

[fenders53]

Guru

I put the NEE profits into some PayPal JAN 210 calls. No wait. that was you. Actually I put it into WEC and XEL the last dip. I had to cut back on positions. UTEs are one of my better trades this year and they've went nowhere.

Sure, I will bet tacos the Packers don't win the Superbowl. Yes they are tough and at home for the playoffs.

Jimmy Rogers has been calling silver and gold most of our lives. He really has. He scored pretty big before he retired decades ago.

I've made a lot of money on every President except George W, whom I liked. If I had to put it in order of return by year I would say Clinton-Biden-Obama-Trump-Bush. Bush trailed badly. I am a Republican, it's just how how it turned out. I play the cards dealt to me. I definitely didn't know Biden would be this good for oil after they had a near death experience under Trump who was friendly to the industry. FED printed money for Obama-Trump-Biden. Each President starting with Bush doubled his predecessors deficit spending per year. Feel free to look that up. It would be hard for the market to fail too bad. I think that game is about over though.

So you have any actual 2022 predictions other than silver or just busting my chops?

[ken-do-nim]

My only prediction is that the current Omicron wave will blow over, markets will blossom, and then the next covid variant will come and volatility will ensue once more.

[fenders53]

Yeah the world will just keep dealing with it. My symptoms disappeared for two days then returned. Just an annoying cold for me. If it replaces Delta entirely we are fortunate. My daughter is still putting patients younger than me on vents. They are unvaxxed though. We can skip that debate on this thread.

[Scooterd]

(01-02-2022, 03:33 PM)fenders53 Wrote: Join in with your own if you care to, or at least disagree with a few of mine.  

9.  I will retire by June 1rst and go fishing more in cool places, if I have to rent my house out, pick up cans in the ditch and live in a cheap RV.  Yeah, it’s that important.
 
10.  The Packers will not win the Superbowl. 

To had a small Typo, I took the liberty of fixing it for you.

10.  The Packers will win the Superbowl.   - There; That's better

Fishing in cool places is one of my fondest hobbies. Love the Brookies.

- Scoot

Greater love hath no man than this, that a man lay down his life for his friends. - John 15:13

[fenders53]

(01-04-2022, 10:52 AM)Scooterd Wrote:

(01-02-2022, 03:33 PM)fenders53 Wrote: Join in with your own if you care to, or at least disagree with a few of mine.  

9.  I will retire by June 1rst and go fishing more in cool places, if I have to rent my house out, pick up cans in the ditch and live in a cheap RV.  Yeah, it’s that important.
 
10.  The Packers will not win the Superbowl. 

To had a small Typo, I took the liberty of fixing it for you.

10.  The Packers will win the Superbowl.   - There; That's better

Fishing in cool places is one of my fondest hobbies. Love the Brookies.

- Scoot

Greater love hath no man than this, that a man lay down his life for his friends. - John 15:13

Where have you been Scooter?  I've been waiting days for you to see that.    You see me trying to get somebody to make a Vegas style bet on them?  I get the other 11 teams.  The Packers are very good and that home field advantage is rough.   Not many teams play well there this time of year.

I enjoy fly fishing for brookies. We don't have many in Iowa so I usually have to go to WI.

[Scooterd]

(01-04-2022, 11:03 AM)fenders53 Wrote: Where have you been Scooter?  I've been waiting days for you to see that.     You see me trying to get somebody to make a Vegas style bet on them?  I get the other 11 teams.  The Packers are very good and that home field advantage is rough.   Not many teams play well there this time of year.

I enjoy fly fishing for brookies.  We don't have many in Iowa so I usually have to go to WI.

My better half (and best friend) works in a cancer center of a large hospital. Her patients are immunocompromised due to their conditions, chemo, radiation, dialysis, etc..and many cannot be vaccinated due to their weakened state.

Though we are both vaccinated and boostered, I still managed to be exposed to this omicron crap. Been under the weather for the past week. Woke up to read the forum, drink some fluids, and head out to barn to check on critters. Then back to bed for a while. This virus epidemic crap sucks.. I would have much preferred fighting Zombies.