03-06-2020, 01:07 PM
(03-06-2020, 12:58 PM)fenders53 Wrote: The next few weeks will be interesting. The US market seems only moderately concerned with foreign deaths. It's going to get real here soon for better or worse. We are about to find out how awesome our US healthcare really is or isn't, and if our containment efforts are effective at all. I wish it wasn't true, but I do like your chances with your puts. This is going to be your best crash aversion attempt of your investing career most likely. You only need one IMO.
Containment has failed. All that matters now is mitigation, per epidemiological and infectious disease experts. The only mitigation strategy that worked for China was extreme quarantine measures (complete shutdown of transport networks, mandatory quarantine at home for all residents of Hubei Province, martial law in some areas). Community spread here is completely unchecked at this time (Seattle and New York numbers bear this out).
Our healthcare system is at a disadvantage to places that have universal coverage/care (essentially every other OECD country), when faced with a pandemic. We have 28 million uninsured Americans, and there is no paid sick leave for millions of low-income workers, whose only choice is work or default on the bills. We also have no universal preventive care, and a high proportion of the population with significant comorbidity factors for COVID-19, such as obesity, diabetes, and hypertension.
Our hospital system operates near capacity during flu season in most years, and was mostly built with a profit motive in mind. Hospital Corporation of America (and similarly situated companies) would have been punished by shareholders if they built excess capacity into their systems, same as airlines are punished by investors for having excess capacity. There are multiple reasons why we are No. 32 globally amongst OECD countries for hospital beds per capita.