What I Am Buying Today.

[ken-do-nim]

(05-22-2024, 10:25 AM)Marknew Wrote:

(05-22-2024, 09:08 AM)ken-do-nim Wrote: Somebody help me make sense of this.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/toll-brot...00735.html

TOL had a great earnings announcement, I thought.  They beat analyst estimates, were up from last year, and raised guidance through year's end.  Result?  Down 8.27% last I checked.  How can that be?

Because Wall St always looks ahead 6 months. TOL has already had a big run, and how much better can the story get here?
 
The housing market is going nuts right now. Just here in my area for a junk house that are built in the 60'S they’re going for 500k plus. 3-5 years ago, these same houses were 200-225K. That tells you just how much of a bubble the housing market is in. 
 
Let’s not forget the average person is strapped for cash now and won’t be buying or putting work into their houses. Just look at the hit it had on LULU, TGT, HD, LOW, ect. People are not spending like they were. 
 
And TOL and others home builders are going to be building smaller houses less than 2000 sq foot now to keep up with demand and cater to the average home owner to afford. Luxury homes are going to be tough to build now with prices of materials and that will cut into profits going forward. It’s mostly town houses you see going up. Very few single homes are being built. Ask yourself why that is?? 
 
Tol was a $40-$60 stock for a long time and broke out to $120 because of the housing market craze. At some point this ends and we get back to norm. And when that happens these home builders will fall. 
 
If this fastest interest-rate-hiking cycle ultimately leads to a recession and a surge in unemployment, builders could be vulnerable

Not to mention Warren Buffets sold all or most of housing stocks. And he normally gets out early before the fall

Thanks for the analysis.  First off, Toll Brothers are luxury home builders.  Second, the results were robust and they raised their guidance. 

"Based on these outstanding results, and with continued solid demand as we start our third quarter, we are increasing our full year revenue and earnings guidance. "

“Demand for new homes continues to be driven by a resilient economy, favorable demographics and a lack of supply that reflects both the chronic underproduction of housing in the U.S. and the historically low levels of resale inventory caused by the lock-in effect of higher rates. Our strategy of widening our price points to include more affordable luxury homes and increasing our supply of spec homes has helped us grow market share. It also enables us to reduce cycle times, improve inventory turns and leverage our fixed costs, driving revenue growth and higher operating margins. With these strategies firmly in place and producing results, and with our more capital efficient land strategy, we are confident that we can continue to generate attractive returns well into the future."

I guess if TOL was going to go down for the reasons you stated, it wouldn't be today, on the heels of such news.  Just strange.