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Complete Capitulation and Calmness
#5
Hey there kayboy -- I certainly understand the feeling, and you've got to be able to sleep at night. And at the end of the day, you're captain of your own ship and must make the decisions.

But I tend to agree with the other sentiments so far in the thread. Yes, the market might drop soon, but it may not either. The fact that we are at all time highs is not evidence AT ALL that a decline is imminent. Here's the S&P 500 since 1950 or so:

   

Look at the COUNTLESS number of times that the market made all-time highs. You could have made your exact same post in 1957, or 1964, or 1986, or 1998, or 2011. Every time, the market may have "felt" impossibly high. But every single time, you would have been handsomely rewarded for getting in.

Sure, there may be a pullback in the near future, and if it happens soon enough and you have the wherewithal to actually catch it, you'll do a bit better than if you go all in today. But if the pullback is farther out than you predict, or shallower than you predict, or if you don't catch it right, then you may still come out worse than if you jump in today.

It is certainly harder to make investments now than anytime in the last few years, but focus on individual stocks and not the market as a whole. Don't go all in; buy in as slowly as your comfort level allows. But if your time horizon is more than a few years, I agree with the others here that the sidelines, while it may be more comfortable, could be a costly mistake. Good luck!
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Messages In This Thread
Complete Capitulation and Calmness - by kayboy - 06-19-2014, 08:05 PM
RE: Complete Capitulation and Calmness - by Kerim - 06-20-2014, 08:28 AM



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