What I Am Buying Today.

[fenders53]

(01-12-2022, 03:16 PM)ken-do-nim Wrote:

(01-12-2022, 10:21 AM)stockguru Wrote:

(01-12-2022, 10:08 AM)ken-do-nim Wrote: Just read this article: https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/5-unstop...uy-in-2022 and found it interesting.  Liquidated 2 shares of ASML so I could get 1 share each of the tickers mentioned in the article: NVDA, U, FB, ADBE, MTTR as watch positions.  Plus I added 1 share each of TTD and UPST.

So is that how you buy your stocks? Take advice from articles. And here I thought you made your own choices  

I uh, err, um, don't know how to respond to that

(01-12-2022, 03:04 PM)fenders53 Wrote: Well this is about as bold as I usually get in one day.  I've seriously been waiting 2-4 months for some stocks to dip hard and stabilize so I can make them longer term holds and fairly large positions.  I know many here don't understand how selling puts works but I committed to the potential purchases of 100 shares of each if they hit my price.  They are actually pretty easy to roll forward but I think I am good with these prices.

GNRC Strike  300
ENPH Strike 140
ABNB Strike 155

Received over $2000 cash so I'll find something boring with a dividend to add shares to soon.  This is really just my way of bumping my dividend for short-term exposure.  They all expire in 2-5 weeks.  $59,500 doesn't get you anything close to $2K in DGI  dividends per month.

In 2021 I had originally planned to make ABNB a core position, figuring once covid subsided it would take off.  Now it seems like covid is never-ending.  Not sure anybody wants to rent their homes out anymore.

I wanted ABNB as well but I knew the initial spike at IPO was a little much and it almost always pays to wait.  Then the Covid drama.  They are also entering long-term rentals now which allows guests to negotiate rates down so that part is lower margin.  I won't pretend to understand how it all plays out but the brand is VERY valuable.  Option premiums are good on the other side as well so I can sell calls way out while it finds it's footing.  Profitable enough and not going away.  It's my only re-opening play (if assigned shares at 155) other than TXRH.  I want no part of airlines and cruise lines with dumpster fire balance sheets from Covid.

And this is how I buy almost all my stocks unless I am nibbling small amounts of shares. I pick my desired entry price and contract end date. Usually a month or less. I get paid cash immediately for my risk whether I get the shares or not. On average I get 1-3% for a month. It usually takes 2-4 attempts to get assigned so I'm just collecting income. Market gets slammed I own them in one attempt. It's not unheard of I do this ten times on a ticker and never own any shares. Downside? My broker is holding $59,500 collateral while contracts are open. I can't buy any SOXL with that money this month. If GNRC drops to 280 I am still paying 300, but if I bought it today it's 320. That make any sense at all?

[fenders53]

And since I am bored. ABNB should be years away from consideration as a core position whether Covid had happened or not. They aren't some joke SPAC, they will be profitable this year instead of 2020, but the PE will probably be something like 75-100 a couple quarters from now. They are basically a software company with good marketing and a very strong brand. I know a lot of millennials that only use ABNB. My brief experience with them has been excellent. Could the stock pop to 250 before it should? I think it could, and covered call premiums will keep me entertained for now. I really wanted to buy it a long time ago but I held off. I don't think it is a crazy thought to believe they will be as profitable as any hotel chain on the planet. But then again most hotel chains struggle so that may be a low hurdle to jump. We'll see.

[Kerim]

(01-12-2022, 03:16 PM)ken-do-nim Wrote: In 2021 I had originally planned to make ABNB a core position, figuring once covid subsided it would take off.  Now it seems like covid is never-ending.  Not sure anybody wants to rent their homes out anymore.

I've got no opinion about ABNB as a core holding, but I'm not sure I agree with your reasoning. Personally, I'd be far more inclined to travel via AirBNB than by hotel during pandemic surges. Way fewer in-person interactions, you have the whole place to yourself, a proper kitchen to feed yourself. And LOTS of AirBNB properties are not "homes" at all, but individual properties (or even large portfolios of properties) that are owned entirely for short-term rental.

[mrw11g]

Started a position in TROW today.

[fenders53]

(01-12-2022, 08:19 PM)Kerim Wrote:

(01-12-2022, 03:16 PM)ken-do-nim Wrote: In 2021 I had originally planned to make ABNB a core position, figuring once covid subsided it would take off.  Now it seems like covid is never-ending.  Not sure anybody wants to rent their homes out anymore.

I've got no opinion about ABNB as a core holding, but I'm not sure I agree with your reasoning. Personally, I'd be far more inclined to travel via AirBNB than by hotel during pandemic surges. Way fewer in-person interactions, you have the whole place to yourself, a proper kitchen to feed yourself. And LOTS of AirBNB properties are not "homes" at all, but individual properties (or even large portfolios of properties) that are owned entirely for short-term rental.

Good points Kerim.  When I first looked at ABNB my concerns were....

Lasting business model which I thought was a pass.

Moat?  Definitely in the short term because they operated privately and built a solid brand.  Longterm moat is debatable.  Efficiency needed to discourage mediocre competitors.  

Profitable fast enough to warrant the IPO price on day one, nevermind after the immediate runup?  Fail IMO.  Not worth the combined market cap of several major hotels and a successful restaurant chain.  I don't want to wait three years for a reasonable valuation.  That ends bad in a tough market.  The stock could dip another 20% from here and it is already way off highs.  IMO there is no margin of safety but I am saying there's a chance I won't regret it at 155.

[crimsonghost747]

Airbnb is, to me, just another hotel booking website now. I know I've said similar things here before.

But there was a time in the past where it was an original peer-to-peer house lending website. Those days were great. Seriously. I used to grab apartments from students etc. in prime locations and they were well equipped. You'll have spices in the kitchen, proper cutlery, you'll have an umbrella somewhere, you'll probably have a bookcase full of stuff if you're bored on a rainy day, you've got netflix subscriptions etc. I've even had public transport cards left on the table with keys etc.

The hosts were always flexible, and it was a genuinely friendly check-in process... and it's more than once that I've found a bottle of wine with a "thanks" note waiting for you when you get there. And all this for half the price of a mediocre hotel room. On top of the deal that I got, I knew that the money went towards helping someone else travel. This was almost always the case, it was just people lending out their homes to pay a part of their vacation. Those were great times and Airbnb was definitely my first choice of where to look.

Now? Has anyone actually had experiences like that in recent years? I know I haven't. It has always been a pure short-term rental business, or even a hotel. The Airbnb brand is strong indeed, but what they offer is EXACTLY the same as other websites, such as booking.com. (which has a nice selection of non-hotel short term rentals also now, no doubt to compete with Airbnb) The price isn't really a selling point either, as Airbnb is priced at exactly the same range where most other options are, this is compared to the 25-50% cheaper than other options that it was only a few years ago.

I'm not saying Airbnb is bad, not by a long-shot, I'm just saying that currently there is nothing that differentiates them from most other similar businesses. I do still use Airbnb, but it's more of a "I'll check it just in case there is something nice" rather than the first thing I start looking at.

Yet they still trade at double the price-to-sales of booking, which has already proven itself to be a reliable long-term investment with a great track record of profitability.

[fenders53]

I agree on valuation. The market can be silly. Just look at Unity. Who is insane enough to pay those infinity multiples?

I'm kidding. Unfortunately we are usually forced to pay a premium for any new company with a chance of being a good long term hold. I doubt ABNB will ever be a core holding. They can't help that we had a pandemic just months after they launched so it will take some time to assess fundamentals.

I did find your debate with Otter compelling, especially when the stock was trading 20% higher. I am not a worldly traveler like you are but the ABNB destinations in my region are excellent, with outstanding hosts. You can rent a nice vacation home for the same price as a half worn out chain hotel room. You aren't saving money but the scenery and amenities are better around here. My wife and daughter become buddies with the host, and then I have to help clean it better than my own home after paying a cleaning fee anyway. We left that place visited in December shining like a new dime. The cleaning staff, if they even have one, probably hung out on the deck for an hour. So there's a downside.

[ken-do-nim]

I had never looked at BKNG Booking.Com before. Wow is that P/E high! Hard pass.

[fenders53]

(01-13-2022, 07:39 AM)ken-do-nim Wrote: I had never looked at BKNG Booking.Com before.  Wow is that P/E high!  Hard pass.

You really have to look at 2022 vs 2019 numbers, but unfortunately most of these hospitality companies have already priced in a strong recovery.  BKNG at 2000 was probably a decent buy.  Now up 20% just like that and it doesn't look as attractive.  30 PE is normal for them, and that is probably where they end up in a year if the share price remained flat from here.

[ken-do-nim]

I just checked in an old friend today, one LABU. Aka the world's worst triple leveraged fund. Back on Feb 8th of last year, it had reached a crescendo of $183 per share, and it has been steadily downhill ever since. Today, it sits at $25.50 (!). Overall performance is -78.25% in the past year.

[fenders53]

(01-13-2022, 09:28 AM)ken-do-nim Wrote: I just checked in an old friend today, one LABU.  Aka the world's worst triple leveraged fund.  Back on Feb 8th of last year, it had reached a crescendo of $183 per share, and it has been steadily downhill ever since.  Today, it sits at $25.50 (!).  Overall performance is -78.25% in the past year.

The nature of biotechs.  Suffer for years and then launch for 6 months with eye popping gains.  Time your entry correctly and you are a genius.  The sector is scary enough without leveraging.  Better done as a side game in a diversified health ETF where the managers just might have a better clue than I do (that isn't a high hurdle lol).  The goals of the companies are admirable but they are about as volatile as a pot stock.  Maybe worse.

[Dario33]

Added to TROW, DGX, NDAQ