Correction, or Worse?

[Dividend Watcher]

(Kerim, I tried quoting you above and got an error again so assuming it's software or server-related.)

Kerim said:

Quote:Yikes. This is not fun at all! Balances way down, and not even close to bargain / buying territory. Alas.

I was updating my investing plan now that I'm retired. First, what an eye opener since I last updated it in August 2024.

Second, yes, everything keeps changing. It seems there is no certainty in anything right now. At the end of my investing plan, I have some quotes that keep reminding me of some long-term investor faux pas and reassuring ideas. I thought I'd post a few here to help keep someone grounded amidst the seeming chaos:

• “That’s not to suggest that people invest cash they can’t afford to put at risk; there’s nothing wrong with taking risk off the table, especially at a time when the market makes you nervous, but if you are waiting for the “perfect” time to be in the market — when you are comfortable, confident and worry-free — you’re never going to find it.”; Chuck Jaffe in a Marketwatch article entitled '6 Bad Reasons To Make Changes To Your Portfolio', March 2015
  

• “Remember, things are never clear until it’s too late.”; Peter Lynch, One Up On Wall Street
  

• “I have a few general rules I live by. First, diversify, but do not go crazy. Stick with your good ideas. Second, never panic. Third, watch the business fundamentals and let someone else watch the technical aspects. Fourth, seek to hear or read good advice. Fifth, hold some cash so you can buy from panicked sellers as I did in 2008, 2009, and in the first quarter of 2014. And last, but not least, always take advantage of dividend reinvestment for low cost compounding.”; Kevin Arledge on Seeking Alpha, April 2014
  

[Kerim]

Yeah, I think I messed something up in the database in restoring crimson's account. Fixing it myself might be a bit beyone me. Might have to call in the pros.

[Dividend Watcher]

Well, that sux. Keep us updated.

[crimsonghost747]

I do think we might be heading for something more than just a small correction. Whatever happens with the tariffs, I think the damage has already been done as a short/mid term lack of trust in the US as a trade partner. Uncertainty always makes companies cautious about their spending and more cautious about the deals they make, if that persists over a period of months it will start to hit the global economy.

The central banks around the world are still in the long-term trend of pushing down interest rates, which signals that pretty much all of them see some clouds over the economy.

I've made some unusual (for me) moves to deal with this, too early to say if they have been successful. But I did sell a tiny part of my long-term holdings (a few specific companies) late Q3 last year, and now in April I've sold some more (again just a couple of specific companies) and also bought some mid-term puts on the indexes.

So I guess the long-story short is that I'm still mostly invested, with some downside protection, and I'm being very cautious with buying the dips at this point, but I am making some purchases here and there.