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What Did You Buy Today?
@fenders do you consider SLB or BHGE small? I haven’t looked deep into them yet, Just know that GE is looking to dump BHGE stake which could add up to steep decline and could give great opportunity to own this even at lower prices.
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(11-23-2018, 01:48 PM)vbin Wrote: @fenders do you consider SLB or BHGE small? I haven’t looked deep into them yet, Just know that GE is looking to dump BHGE stake which could add up to steep decline and could give great opportunity to own this even at lower prices.

SLB is one of the larger oil services companies. about 5 times the size of Baker Hughes.  BHGE is a GE company.  That might make me uncomfortable because it;s no secret GE is screwed if their debt rating is downgraded to junk. They have publicly stated they'll sell a lot of assets if they need to keep the banks happy. (as they should).  BHGE sure looks like a candidate because they are a liability when oil is low.  That sale could be very good or bad for you depending on projected oil prices at that time.  

The small exploration companies are what I am most gun shy of.  They take a chance and leverage up when times are good, then they just about go bankrupt when oil falls.  Some of them do go bankrupt, cut dividends etc.  If you don't know the industry  they can be lotto tickets.  To me they are swing trading stocks and not long-term investments.  

Whatever you decide, pull up a 20 year stock chart and see what you are getting yourself into.  Make sure the dividend didn't disappear at times. That's how $5 oil stocks are born. About the same as my chip stock preachins lol.  Three year charts will mask the risk.  It's the reason I just dabble in the oil majors now.  Energy is very political, but then again it seems hard to avoid that in many sectors.  In oil, a public statement from the US Prez or Saudi  can swing the oil market 10% in a hurry, and worry the market it's a trend.   To invest intelligently you have to understand the current logistics and politics of fracking, challenges of moving oil from the Permian Basis, Bakken fields, offshore drilling, pipelines, etc. The CEOs screw it up about half the time so I accepted my reality the the Aristocrats are far safer. I believe we'll see the oil majors like XOM, CVX and BP  diversify over the next ten years.  They just have to.  It could be bumpy but they have the resources to adapt.  They could bully their way into solar, wind or ice cream if they choose.

EDIT: Swear I didn't see this article before I posted all that. Smile CNBC's talking heads are discussing what's really the minimum you need to make yourself aware of before you dive into anything other than an oil major. It supports a lot of what I stated. The market thinks it's true so it is for now. Will we burn down our new US oil industry jobs, and then take corrective actions to fix it later when election season starts up? It's certainly a possibility. Just look at the AG industry. Devasting tariffs to farmers and Deere etc, then subsidize them 60 days later when the sky was truly falling. This gives me a headache lol.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/23/trumps-q...llers.html
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(11-23-2018, 11:36 AM)vbin Wrote: @fenders, i wasn’t criticizing anyone nor I get offended. I actually feel thankful to learn from all the smart and more experienced people here.

I'm pleased to hear that.  I know I come off preachy sometimes (maybe often lol).  I just hate to stand by and watch a forum friend get smoked when I already paid the "tuition" for that investing mistake 20 years ago.  I don't ever want to scare people from investing in growth, but when everybody loves it and nobody seems to care the PE is obscene, Divmenow and I know how it's gonna end sooner or later when the music stops.
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@fenders, great points. sticking specifically to BHGE, I am looking at it from a prospective that If fundamentally nothing is wrong with BHGE and it’s able to grow over next 10 years, (oil demand is only going to grow, despite recent volatility) then in the event of GE unloading their stake, market will pull down BHGE further which can provide a great opportunity to buy and hold for next few years.

I am not looking beyond BP, RDS,XOM, CVX, PHX with an exception of BHGE, SLB, OIH.
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(11-24-2018, 12:29 PM)vbin Wrote: @fenders, great points. sticking specifically to BHGE, I am looking at it from a prospective that If fundamentally nothing is wrong with BHGE and it’s able to grow over next 10 years, (oil demand is only going to grow, despite recent volatility) then in the event of GE unloading their stake, market will pull down BHGE further which can provide a great opportunity to buy and hold for next few years.

I am not looking beyond BP, RDS,XOM, CVX, PHX with an exception of BHGE, SLB, OIH.

Baker Hughes was a very good company for a lot of years.   I haven't followed them lately.  The last correction was brutal and long, and balance sheets changed for most oil company's.  I agree oil demand will rise provided world economy doesn't have a recession.  And so will supply if proper price point is maintained.  Oil just about oozes out of the ground in the Middle East.  Fracking is a lot more expensive to extract than that and the oil is lesser quality.  But their break even oil price point is considerably lower than even 5 years ago.  OPEC know's this and has no choice but influence the world's supply.  The US is a big oil importer and exporter, which makes no sense  at first glance.  It's pretty complicated.
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Added a little MO yesterday. First time I've bought shares with new money since 2008/2009. Yield over 6 percent on menthol scare.
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I AAPL ever going to go up? My god this is getting crazy now. Wish I never added at $203 lol. At this rate we will be back under $100. Trump and his tariffs. Ugh!!

On a separate note: Added to BMY pre-market
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(11-27-2018, 08:52 AM)divmenow Wrote: I AAPL ever going to go up? My god this is getting crazy now. Wish I never added at $203 lol. At this rate we will be back under $100. Trump and his tariffs. Ugh!!

On a separate note: Added to BMY pre-market

No it seems clear AAPL is going to zero. Smile  I'll keep you company on the ride down.  I bought some new shares at 206, 198. 186, 176.  The purchases were small but I definitely blew the entry.

MO does look good here.  Hope it finds a bottom soon.  Not a bad place to enter BMY in my opinion.   

The tariff threat game is getting more than a little stale.  I don't think it is the least but constructive at this point.  Unconditional surrender from the entire world is not going to happen.
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Yeah, it sucks to buy right as a dip accelerates and see you could have gotten your shares cheaper if you had waited. But AAPL will reward you either way. AAPL continues to be an almost unfathomably profitable company, and just reported their best Q4 results ever. This is not a company to worry about at the moment!
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I find great comfort in AAPLs ability to buy or innovate their way out of any near-term problem that may be over-blown in the first place. The market is just spoiled and used to it running for years on end without a significant pullback. I could be all wet, but I think AAPL is as close to a consumer staple as you are going to find in tech. I don't even want to think about a recession so bad that the cult will stop buying their products at a reasonable rate as improvements are introduced. Those hedge funds that have been selling for a month will be back to run it up in the end. I'll not be surprised to learn later that AAPL already is, or soon will be buying back enough shares to help the stock find a bottom.
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