Next Recission ?

[Otter]

It's always brightest before the dusk. 

[fenders53]

(05-31-2019, 05:09 PM)Otter Wrote:

(05-31-2019, 04:15 PM)fenders53 Wrote: OK, I didn't see assessing more tariffs to other nations coming.  Make a new trade deal with Mexico and then threaten huge tariffs a few months later?  This is an unpredictable mess with potentially dire consequences.

With oil prices plunging, tariffs with our largest trading partner is the last thing my state's economy needs. You'd think 38 electoral votes and Ted Cruz's uncharacteristically narrow 2.6% margin of victory in the 2018 Senate race would advise caution as to anything that could upset the economic apple cart. Between that and potentially devastating auto/part manufacturers in swing states that delivered the narrow electoral college victory in 2016, it seems like a pretty boneheaded political move, economics aside.

(06-27-2019, 10:36 AM)Otter Wrote: It's always brightest before the dusk. 

That's not exactly how I remember the old saying lol.

[rayray]

As more and more Californians move out to other states, such as Arizona and Texas, they bring their liberal voting ways with them.

"The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again, but expecting different results."--Albert Einstein

[fenders53]

Another round of tariffs. This should be enough to ensure corporate profits slow to a crawl for quarter to come. Especially after China retaliates, and they will in some form or another. Hopefully my defensive portfolio is about to come back in style.

[fenders53]

The market is showing some resilience. Acting somewhat rationally overall and sorting out the companies that will truly feel some tariff pain. I don't see any significant risk of a recession anytime soon. The FED is going to loosen, though it's debatable if they should.

[Otter]

S&P 500 back down at levels not seen since almost 60 days ago. 

It's absolute carnage out there.  

[fenders53]

But when will the carnage end lol?

It is kind of crazy you can have individual stocks drop 20% in a week or two and you have to squint your eyes to even see the S&P 500 dip on a 20yr chart

[fenders53]

I see the futures are up today because treasury yields have rebounded. I guess the inversion is cured and there will be no recession. This is comical to watch. I am concerned it is going to scare common investors away at some point. It's the big boys and their algos that are causing the daily swings though. It does make it easier to find some deals though. That's probably the only thing good about it.

[Otter]

IIRC, the market typically rallies 15-20% after a 2/10 yield curve inversion, prior to the recession kicking off.

[fenders53]

(05-31-2019, 05:09 PM)Otter Wrote:

(05-31-2019, 04:15 PM)fenders53 Wrote: OK, I didn't see assessing more tariffs to other nations coming.  Make a new trade deal with Mexico and then threaten huge tariffs a few months later?  This is an unpredictable mess with potentially dire consequences.

With oil prices plunging, tariffs with our largest trading partner is the last thing my state's economy needs. You'd think 38 electoral votes and Ted Cruz's uncharacteristically narrow 2.6% margin of victory in the 2018 Senate race would advise caution as to anything that could upset the economic apple cart. Between that and potentially devastating auto/part manufacturers in swing states that delivered the narrow electoral college victory in 2016, it seems like a pretty boneheaded political move, economics aside.

(08-19-2019, 11:40 AM)Otter Wrote: IIRC, the market typically rallies 15-20% after a 2/10 yield curve inversion, prior to the recession kicking off.

I believe that is correct.  More of a caution sign than a stop sign.  And most every recession has a different set of circumstances.   I find the markets ability to turn on a dime in the short-term fascinating.  It's as if the market "forgets" what it was worrying about or celebrating 48 hours earlier.

[Otter]

(08-19-2019, 12:50 PM)fenders53 Wrote:

(05-31-2019, 05:09 PM)Otter Wrote:

(05-31-2019, 04:15 PM)fenders53 Wrote: OK, I didn't see assessing more tariffs to other nations coming.  Make a new trade deal with Mexico and then threaten huge tariffs a few months later?  This is an unpredictable mess with potentially dire consequences.

With oil prices plunging, tariffs with our largest trading partner is the last thing my state's economy needs. You'd think 38 electoral votes and Ted Cruz's uncharacteristically narrow 2.6% margin of victory in the 2018 Senate race would advise caution as to anything that could upset the economic apple cart. Between that and potentially devastating auto/part manufacturers in swing states that delivered the narrow electoral college victory in 2016, it seems like a pretty boneheaded political move, economics aside.

(08-19-2019, 11:40 AM)Otter Wrote: IIRC, the market typically rallies 15-20% after a 2/10 yield curve inversion, prior to the recession kicking off.

I believe that is correct.  More of a caution sign than a stop sign.  And most every recession has a different set of circumstances.   I find the markets ability to turn on a dime in the short-term fascinating.  It's as if the market "forgets" what it was worrying about or celebrating 48 hours earlier.

I'd say that's more a characteristic of a bull market. There can be some short-term downwards volatility, but the exuberance typically wins out. 2008-2009 was the opposite. All news was bad news, as the market lurched lower and lower. Although the market bottomed in 2009 and commenced its now-precipitous rise, the overall gloomy narrative seemed entrenched until 2012. The initial stages of the bull saw some precipitous fall-backs. It will all shift back again to doom and gloom at some point. Thankfully, those periods tend to be brief in the overall history of the markets.

[fenders53]

(05-31-2019, 05:09 PM)Otter Wrote:

(05-31-2019, 04:15 PM)fenders53 Wrote: OK, I didn't see assessing more tariffs to other nations coming.  Make a new trade deal with Mexico and then threaten huge tariffs a few months later?  This is an unpredictable mess with potentially dire consequences.

With oil prices plunging, tariffs with our largest trading partner is the last thing my state's economy needs. You'd think 38 electoral votes and Ted Cruz's uncharacteristically narrow 2.6% margin of victory in the 2018 Senate race would advise caution as to anything that could upset the economic apple cart. Between that and potentially devastating auto/part manufacturers in swing states that delivered the narrow electoral college victory in 2016, it seems like a pretty boneheaded political move, economics aside.

(08-19-2019, 12:58 PM)Otter Wrote:

(08-19-2019, 12:50 PM)fenders53 Wrote:

(05-31-2019, 05:09 PM)Otter Wrote:

(05-31-2019, 04:15 PM)fenders53 Wrote: OK, I didn't see assessing more tariffs to other nations coming.  Make a new trade deal with Mexico and then threaten huge tariffs a few months later?  This is an unpredictable mess with potentially dire consequences.

With oil prices plunging, tariffs with our largest trading partner is the last thing my state's economy needs. You'd think 38 electoral votes and Ted Cruz's uncharacteristically narrow 2.6% margin of victory in the 2018 Senate race would advise caution as to anything that could upset the economic apple cart. Between that and potentially devastating auto/part manufacturers in swing states that delivered the narrow electoral college victory in 2016, it seems like a pretty boneheaded political move, economics aside.

(08-19-2019, 11:40 AM)Otter Wrote: IIRC, the market typically rallies 15-20% after a 2/10 yield curve inversion, prior to the recession kicking off.

I believe that is correct.  More of a caution sign than a stop sign.  And most every recession has a different set of circumstances.   I find the markets ability to turn on a dime in the short-term fascinating.  It's as if the market "forgets" what it was worrying about or celebrating 48 hours earlier.

I'd say that's more a characteristic of a bull market. There can be some short-term downwards volatility, but the exuberance typically wins out. 2008-2009 was the opposite. All news was bad news, as the market lurched lower and lower. Although the market bottomed in 2009 and commenced its now-precipitous rise, the overall gloomy narrative seemed entrenched until 2012. The initial stages of the bull saw some precipitous fall-backs. It will all shift back again to doom and gloom at some point. Thankfully, those periods tend to be brief in the overall history of the markets.

Yes, it would take the fun out of it if 10yr draw downs were common.  My only "fear", if you want to call it that, is if the FED drops rate five times, and then a recession arrives.  Then what?  $2T annual budget deficits instead of 1T?   Or maybe there is time for the tariffs to go away before we bring the economy to a halt?  IMO the market is not extremely overvalued today.  A lot of companies have slowly grown into their PE while the market has basically oscillated for 18 months.  Anyway I think there is hope the bull has a few more years to run.