03-09-2020, 12:26 PM
(03-09-2020, 12:12 PM)Otter Wrote:It was actionable advice a few weeks ago. Now you are just scaring long-term investors out as it nears your price target when you state you intend to re-enter. Is that still your plan or have you adjusted your projection? It's way too late to for anyone sell in earnest if your bottom projection is anywhere near correct in the end. . Your 2650 SPX target is near. Or has that changed this week?(03-09-2020, 11:56 AM)fenders53 Wrote:(03-09-2020, 11:34 AM)Otter Wrote:(03-09-2020, 10:57 AM)fenders53 Wrote:(03-09-2020, 09:37 AM)Otter Wrote: Still sitting on Puts.
Of course you are, and you called it right. Got anything that might be helpful to your fellow long-term investors on a DGI forum?
Buy quality names with clean balance sheets when there is a multi-week uptrend or flat action. Not like it is going to bounce back to all-time highs overnight. You might miss out on the first few percentage points of an uptrend, but at least you won't be trying to catch a falling knife.
There's dollar cost averaging, and there's picking up pennies in front of a bulldozer. I think there is a bulldozer on the loose. Don't recall bond or oil price action like that even in 2009.
I fully intend to go long again, but don't think we are anywhere close yet. Still not officially a bear market.
(03-09-2020, 11:36 AM)Otter Wrote: Also, anyone who tells you that they can accurately forecast future earnings with any degree of certainty right now should see a psychiatrist.
Also, anyone that feels the need to brag when they time the market correctly will be humbled eventually . Enjoy your victory, but it's of very little use to long-term DGI investors on this forum.
Not bragging. The markets have barely processed this. We are full-steam ahead towards a completely uncontained epidemic in the United States. The science/epidemiology behind SARS-CoV-2 is what it is. It does not care about politics, whether a country is in denial about it, or economies. It is just an RNA machine that replicates, and has statistically predictable outcomes in human populations.
Italy's healthcare system has already been overwhelmed, and ICU care is being rationed in Lombardy (triage guidelines provide that only the youngest/healthiest/most likely to survive should be prioritized for ICU care, such as ventilators and ECMO). Iran is digging mass graves, and a significant number of their top leadership are either infected or dead.
Modeling suggests that Seattle's number of cases will outstrip hospital/ICU capacity by around March 25. When that happened in Wuhan, the case fatality rate rose from 3% to 18%. Hospitals and ICUs around the country will experience the same phenomenon. We have not implemented any strong mitigation measures in this country (China had to lock down hundreds of millions of citizens for at least six weeks just to get things manageable).
All signs point to the United States experiencing a severe epidemic peak of approximately 75-90 days due to a lack of strong mitigation measures. During such peaks, the demand for hospital/ICU care far outstrip supply, and the results are catastrophic. I suspect that the peak will get underway in late March (headlines out of Seattle that hospitals are running out of space will be a canary in the coal-mine, so to speak), and last until early June.
As unpalatable as the reality is, this is actionable information even to DGI investors.