03-09-2020, 12:57 PM
(03-09-2020, 12:44 PM)Otter Wrote:Agree with you. Have been hearing the same. Shortage of test kits in u.s.a. recently some taxes were lifted to import medical supply from china.l since factories started moving there. March will stay down with some upward movement in April( dead cat bounce effect? ). But economical impact due to social disruption will start becoming visible towards the later part of the year.(03-09-2020, 12:37 PM)fenders53 Wrote:(03-09-2020, 11:34 AM)Otter Wrote:Mostly smells like market timing to me . Be a little humble when your Lotto ticket works out. It won't work out every time if you do it often enough. I try to time the market too in moderation but I don't recommend it for younger investors because you'll get it wrong as often as you get it right. But always have some cash for months like this. Grabbing qualiity shares now is not picking up pennies in front of a bulldozer. Emphasis on QUALITY. If you pick the bottom perfectly then good for you. I saved a ton of cash for this moment and that worked out too. Plenty of ways to survive the downturns. Do you still have a 100 stock port or did you sell it? There are plenty of stocks trading at a price that will look more than good soon enough.(03-09-2020, 10:57 AM)fenders53 Wrote:(03-09-2020, 09:37 AM)Otter Wrote: Still sitting on Puts.
Of course you are, and you called it right. Got anything that might be helpful to your fellow long-term investors on a DGI forum?
Buy quality names with clean balance sheets when there is a multi-week uptrend or flat action. Not like it is going to bounce back to all-time highs overnight. You might miss out on the first few percentage points of an uptrend, but at least you won't be trying to catch a falling knife.
There's dollar cost averaging, and there's picking up pennies in front of a bulldozer. I think there is a bulldozer on the loose. Don't recall bond or oil price action like that even in 2009.
I fully intend to go long again, but don't think we are anywhere close yet. Still not officially a bear market.Mostly s
Haven't touched my DGI stuff. It is down in paper value significantly, with the rest of the market. Dividends still to cash. 401k still in stable value fund.
Put options were purchased with part of my savings allocated to future market downturn purchases. I made a judgment call early in February that this would not be an ordinary market downturn driven by business cycles/interest rates/etc, but a market shock caused by an external factor. I have every intention of taking profits and putting them on the long side of the ledger eventually (buying quality yield at a discount). I do not expect to find the market bottom, but do not have any interest in switching to a long position while markets are still in freefall, and facts on the ground indicate that things are only going to get worse on the medical/societal/economic front for the next several weeks.