(03-24-2020, 12:16 PM)Otter Wrote:Otter, this is a good time to study past corrections, then apply what is different this time, because it's never the same. I'm sure you've thought of all this, but this is what I find most relevant.(03-24-2020, 11:47 AM)vbin Wrote:(03-24-2020, 11:41 AM)Otter Wrote:This guy is also predicting great recession based on Elliot curve and debt bubble but I do not agree with that theory.(03-24-2020, 11:36 AM)vbin Wrote: You guys might wanna go through this thread. Good to have different prospectives.
https://us.teamblind.com/s/VOjed7r0
If you guys don't have the app, they have a website aswell. Just Google ask me about the crash blind
Yup. Bear markets always have the biggest rallies.
Yeah. I don't have a crystal ball for typical economic/business cycles. My entire side-bet short thesis since early February has been tied to anticipated impacts of the virus, based upon epidemiological modeling.
I still think the most severe impacts (peak of the peak) are around the end of April, beginning of May timeframe. My best guess is that the downward market pressure will largely follow the virus for that period.
I have absolutely no idea what happens with the markets after the peak recedes. Do we skid along sideways for a while? Maybe. Do we drift lower for a few months until reaching a March 2009 nadir, as compounding negative economic data drifts in? Maybe. Do we start to rise slowly? Maybe. Is there a rapid run-up relief rally? Maybe.
With all this speculative stuff, I'm keeping my timing tied to the anticipated peak. I anticipate going long on a lot of stuff in 4-5 weeks.
I could also be wrong. Perhaps everything is already priced in and we've seen the bottom already.
-We've never shut our economy down this long (projecting), and that includes fighting world wars. There is going to be a recession. This isn't late 2018.
-the FED has never juiced the economy like this. There is an election approaching. There could be several more stimulus bills. We've lost our damn minds when it comes to printing money we don't have.
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-This is in the top two fastest market drops all-time. Perhaps we took a shortcut to the bottom and it won't require years as it has at times in the past.
-Some things remain the same. The average investor is likely to be shell-shocked. Many will never return to the market. Those who remain will condition themselves to ignore horrible earnings reports while dreaming of a better next qtr/yr.
My thesis is it is EXTREMELY likely there will be an upside rally, and it could be amazing. It also may be short lived, but it will be a tradeable event. Our near-term bottom will very likely be prior to the virus climax. The market tends to find a way to make that happen. You wait for blue skies, you probably miss the bus like the last ten times.