The Speculative Stocks....

[fenders53]

(03-30-2020, 12:04 PM)Otter Wrote:

(03-30-2020, 11:54 AM)fenders53 Wrote:

(03-30-2020, 11:14 AM)Otter Wrote: Bought some 01/21/2022 UUP 25 Puts today. If the dollar even touches the December, 2018 lows during this money printing spree, these should print.

There may be near-term strength in the dollar (there was at first in 2008), but eventually the money printing has the expected effect.

I'm not informed enough to trade those.  I just want you to know your trades the last two months are depressing but I am listening. I've had a wonderful last ten days and caught some breaks on long positions.  I just bought another SPY put and I am hedged some more.  I've lightened up gradually on longs as the tape blows though countless small limit sell orders to my surprise.  My next day off I am going to bury some gold in the back yard.  Enough to buy a mobile home in the Minnesota woods were I can fly fish for the rest of my life lol.    This market is crazy volatile.  I've never seen anything like it.  It is more than a little different this time.

So, in a nutshell . . . my SPY Puts are banking on another substantial leg down within the next 30 days. I doubt I will time the bottom, but that is my time horizon for selling and taking profits on those. 

USO 5 LEAPs expiring 22 months from now are somewhat self-explanatory. Despite the recent market run-up, oil has continued its nosedive straight down. I may not have caught the bottom on these calls, but seeing USO spike up above 5 in the next two years seems pretty likely. 

UUP Puts are just shorting the dollar vs. other currencies. Yes, everyone is printing at the moment, but we are printing like it is going out of style. I also anticipate that the U.S. is going to have a worse per-capita outcome from the Coronavirus than many other OECD nations (rise of confirmed cases on a time-adjusted scale compared to other countries supports this - we are having the worst growth of any country). There may be a short-term flight to safety in U.S. assets, as there was in 2008 (which drove up the dollar), but the ongoing QE pushed the value of the dollar down for years afterwards. The current administration (and any future administration) also has every incentive to debase the currency as much as possible vs. others, to bolster American industry's competitiveness during a recovery phase.

A few local businesses announced permanent closure today.  It's just getting started.  They could navigate the red tape and likely get a loan.  They were struggling to pay the help with the loan they already had so throwing in the towel.  They seem to be facing the reality they can't make another loan payment with only half the business for six months or more.