(03-30-2020, 02:01 PM)vbin Wrote: I sold a few vixy September puts of $12, I think volatility will go down in coming months.
Also booked USO leap calls. @Otter totally agree with you there. I also have leap calls on BKR, XOM, OXY.
I want to sell more SPY but fed printing too much money is scaring me. Basically fed is ready to so anything to save the market.
I think we are still in a volatile phase transition, so can't commit to anything on the UVXY/SVXY side other than straight day-trading. If we do have a nice dramatic down leg that drops the premiums on SVXY calls or UVXY puts, I sure wouldn't mind doing that. In the vast majority of market conditions, those are profitable if you didn't pay too much for them (but, they are priced accordingly).
I would like to add more LEAP USO calls and UUP puts while the premiums are reasonable. The two are connected. If the event causing movement in the market is the drop in the value of the dollar due to Fed printing, oil typically increases in price (it is dollar-denominated - if dollars drop in value, oil rises in real value to compensate). Likewise, if the event causing movement in the market is the increase in the value of oil, that likely means the value of the dollar is headed down (based on inflation expectations due to oil price increase forecasting economic growth - this particular scenario is tied closely to the Fed increasing its balance sheet by over 25% of GDP in a week).
I think I will still get my opportunity for a big SPY drop, given the fact that oil has continued into the basement while the market indexes recovered more than 20%. The price of oil (or its collapse due to lack of use) is a pretty handy proxy for economic activity. There's an imbalance at the moment, and I don't think the people who sell the energy inputs that actually make society function are the ones who are wrong at this precise moment.