(03-31-2020, 03:44 PM)vbin Wrote:I know I am full of market philosophy sometimes (often). I hope I don't come off arrogant. I want everyone on this forum to succeed. I've probably lost more money in oil than you have over my investing career. It is the only sector that has absolutely schooled me on how much I don't know about commodities. The only way you make money in this sector is to buy when companies are going out of business, when nobody wants to buy oil, then trim profits on the way back up when everyone says oil is headed to the moon. You'll lose a few bucks scaling out but nobody can time this. I don't care that the oil bulls type volumes about on S.A. This is a very slow growth industry. Renewables are not going to end oil, but they can sure as hell kill oil growth. It's delusional to think otherwise IMO. Make all your moves slowly when all hell is breaking loose. That is almost always a better strategy than jumping deep into the fire because you believe this has to be the bottom.(03-31-2020, 03:41 PM)fenders53 Wrote:I have listened to you before, lol. Otherwise I would be neck deep in oil already. Thank you for reminding me to wait. Agreed, doesn't look like oil is recovering tomoorw. My speculation is that Trump will focus more on oil closer to election time, not at this moment.(03-31-2020, 03:20 PM)vbin Wrote: I am chest deep in oil.and ready to go neck deep. We will see super cycle in oil once demand comes back and high debt companies have filled ch 11( don't get me wrong, I am not happy people leaving jobs but that's what will happen unfortunately. )
Not that you have ever listened to me before on oil but........... Wait for a little more blood in the streets. We are getting close. Nobody is out of business yet, hardly anyone has cut a dividend yet. Capitulation has not happened yet.
What is your thesis that oil demand recovers anytime soon? That has to happen in a big way. You believe the virus is doing VERY real damage right? (your short positions say you believe that and you put your money where your mouth is). That thesis absolutely flies in the face of oil being anything but treacherous for many months. We know demand is dead for a good while. I can only think of one way the supply chain is disrupted and nobody is in the mood to start a regional war right now IMO.
I will never invest another nickel in oil until companies are panicking. It has to be starting but I haven't seen it yet.
Anyway, tiny moves are almost always prudent when catching a falling knife. You have to keep asking yourself what could possibly cause oil to launch higher tomorrow if I move too cautiously today.