03-31-2020, 05:18 PM
(03-31-2020, 04:58 PM)fenders53 Wrote: The key words is LEAPS. Long-term plays should work out. Oil can't get too much cheaper. Oil stocks can. Some Canadian oil is sub $10. That's unfathomable. None of the brilliant oil authors called this. Not even close. Majors have been investing CAPEX just months ago. If anyone should know it would surely be XOM,CVX,BP etc. Watching them scramble to cancel now.
Yes. This was a black swan event, and so not predicted by analysts or those doing CAPEX planning before the virus broke out, and understandably so.
I think the crude market is doing a pretty good job at the moment of pricing in the near-standstill in industry and commerce - better than the equities market. Their commodity is pricing according to reality. Next 30 days or so is the worst of this for America, Europe is 2 weeks ahead of us generally (and should start slowly putting itself back together sooner), and China is desperately trying to bring itself back online without experiencing a second wave of infections. Even a rumor could send crude up 10% at this point. Actual good news could see WTI head up 40% or more.