(04-07-2020, 12:02 PM)fenders53 Wrote:(04-07-2020, 11:26 AM)vbin Wrote:(04-03-2020, 11:37 AM)Otter Wrote: Just bought some 7/17/20 USO 5.50 Puts. Will sell on the first down leg for oil, as this recent 38.5% run up in just a few days seems a tiny bit overdone.They are meeting Thursday. I don't think it will.get postponed this time. Thought even on good news you might see selling.
I followed Otter into this USO trade. I won't pretend to know where oil stocks will go short-term because the long-term is a factor for the bulls (as it should be). Oil has no rational hope of running higher for long no matter what they agree to at the meeting. The whole world needs to commit to cutting production 30% for a year. Watch that not happen. I'm not even concerned if oil spikes 10% after the meeting. This is why we don't bet on the next two weeks if we are smart.
Implied volatility rears its ugly head. USO down over 3% to 5.32, and the ITM 5.50 puts aren't even budging in price.
Exact opposite of what I experienced on the opposite side with call options.
Edited to add - According to most option calculators, my position should be up over 5% at the moment.