(03-17-2020, 10:22 AM)EricL Wrote:(03-17-2020, 10:06 AM)fenders53 Wrote:(03-17-2020, 09:58 AM)crimsonghost747 Wrote: Took a look at Disney.It's an average in sort of deal IMO. Their streaming service is killing it last report I saw. The parks will be open before you know it. They are in warm climates mostly. Some trips will be deferred rather than cancelled. I only own a small position. Not trying to be in denial but DIS will be fine. I'd be OK with some cheaper shares though lol. That said, I can think if a good reason to not buy anything until it trades for a 5 PE just to be safe.
I was surprised to see that their park business was a massive part of their overall revenue and earnings. I really expected it to be smaller compared to the rest. So there is that, and then I do recall some ESPN issues a while back, which are probably only going to get worse now that the majority of sports has been cancelled.
A great company, no doubt about it. And I would have been happy to buy it under $100 before this virus thing happened. But now I'd like to see it fall down further before I initiate a position.
I agree it will be fine, and $95 probably isn't a bad point to start averaging down. It's trading at 18X 2020 estimates, which is my fair value PE target. Starting to get interesting, but not a screaming buy to me is all I'm saying. There's a lot of names in discretionary with similar growth and higher yields that are trading at lower valuations. HD, LOW, MCD, ROST, VFC, TJX, SBUX to name a few. DIS might deserve the higher valuation, it is an amazing company.
I DEFINITELY appreciate your advice Eric, even if it sounds like I don't. I could find a reason I don't prefer a few of the stocks you just recommended. HD, awesome company, debt is excessive and it will haunt them if a recession is in fact coming which seems to be everyone's current thesis. They are finally struggling to meet same store sales growth targets. I personally observe the insane attempt at cost cutting to make it keep happening. They will run out of luck some quarter very soon. The stock was significantly overvalued 48hrs ago. Things are fluid for sure. DIS is down $50. Is the earnings miss already accounted for? Nobody knows until it happens.