(10-02-2021, 04:55 PM)Kerim Wrote: I don't disagree with anything you guys have said, really. But I do disagree as to timing and scope. Sure, I get that an educated and affluent millennial in the US may not want to profit from tobacco, and that it is "out of favor" with the ESG crowd. But that and everything else you've mentioned is really old news. This company sells its products all over the planet, and consistently earns many billions of dollars in revenues for it. And the price right now is incredibly low, so I think the downside risk is minimal.It is old and persistent news that has cut BTI share price in half during about the best five year run in our investing lifetime. What I think you need to convince yourself of is what changes the trend. Total annual return with dividends since JAN 2017 is -3.27%
I never thought I'd get tot his point, but I actually could imagine getting rid of all of my oil stocks before my tobacco. I think the landscape for energy is changing much faster than the declines in smoking rates.
If I could get a CD paying 8.5 percent right now, I'd likely liquidate all of my stocks and just do that (assuming it was low risk). BTI at these levels is feeling a bit like that to me right now. (And again, I don't put MO in the same bucket right now, even though it has been one of my largest positions and best performers over the years.)
And again, I'm not calling this a lifetime hold, but I think the doom and gloom on tobacco is, as it has been for decades, just overblown. I do worry about it in a market-wide swoon, as I said before, but there are few safe places in that case.
If I have time tonight or tomorrow (though it is doubtful), I may do a deeper dive on the financials in making plans for the week.
I own shares so I would be pleased to hear optimistic thoughts.