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Just making conversation but how is everyone doing trying to predict the markets? Wow this seems absolutely random with sector shifts every day or two, if not mid day. I really think it's Algo based. It has no real effect on my true long-term investments but everybody likes to add on a dip and this seems way beyond random. The short or even mid-term economy projections don't seem to matter, nor interest rate or inflation rises. Pandemic news is good for maybe an hour or two. At the end of the day there is just nowhere else to invest until bond yields are way higher, and there is no guarantee that actually happens.
Like I said, just making conversation. I won't let any of this rattle me, but out smarting the market in the short term seems even more futile than usual. Whether buying or selling, limit orders seem prudent. Don't force anything at a price you don't like because it might be better tomorrow.
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I am predicting that our dividend/distribution increase will be in the low teens.
I am not predicting share price appreciation.
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(01-14-2022, 09:32 AM)rnsmth Wrote: I am predicting that our dividend/distribution increase will be in the low teens.
I am not predicting share price appreciation.
I like it! I predict you will be correct. That is the beauty of solid dividend stocks. I really do enjoy following the ebb and flow of the markets, but it is nice to have core positions that require little to no attention.
And a low teens increase in your distributions is great.
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it's volatile for sure and can remain this way for a while--too much going on imho
times like this i might make small changes sell something even though it's down to buy something that is a much better company because it's also down--trading a dud for a stud
i might do this with kinder morgan--sell it for a loss--but invest in a much better company
not saying i'll actually do this but might
or i might sell something that its been a pretty good investment but don't own many shares like i got rid of chubb and reallocated some of the funds
also got rid of walgreens and cardinal health
stuff like that
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Hey Ray,
That's how I do it as well. There are usually opportunities to touch up the port some earlyish in the downturn. I see little need to ride something down that was low conviction before the correction arrived. If you wait too long, you end up bailing near the bottom so the money needs a solid place to go.
I'd like to think I am done with major adjustments a week ago. I thought 2022 would be tough, but until yesterday we had a record setting bad January.
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fenders--yea--i felt "this bad" was not going to come this soon
and i'm not so sure when the fed raises rates and eases QE that it's baked in "now"
i have a feeling if the market drops too much the fed will pivot--powell doesn't want to throw us in a recession
but anything is possible??
like tom brady just retired
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Yes down everyday was a bit sudden on no news anyone should have been shocked by.
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01-29-2022, 10:59 PM
(This post was last modified: 01-29-2022, 11:00 PM by crimsonghost747.)
(01-13-2022, 11:42 AM)fenders53 Wrote: Just making conversation but how is everyone doing trying to predict the markets? Wow this seems absolutely random with sector shifts every day or two, if not mid day. I really think it's Algo based. It has no real effect on my true long-term investments but everybody likes to add on a dip and this seems way beyond random. The short or even mid-term economy projections don't seem to matter, nor interest rate or inflation rises. Pandemic news is good for maybe an hour or two. At the end of the day there is just nowhere else to invest until bond yields are way higher, and there is no guarantee that actually happens.
Like I said, just making conversation. I won't let any of this rattle me, but out smarting the market in the short term seems even more futile than usual. Whether buying or selling, limit orders seem prudent. Don't force anything at a price you don't like because it might be better tomorrow.
Bond yields are definitely climbing up, in fact they have climbed up ridiculous amounts already. The 1 year US treasury yield is 87% higher than it was at the start of the year. No, that is not a typo. Even the 10 year yield is up almost 10%. Obviously the overall yields are still low and they will have to climb up more before bonds can really compete with stocks for a place in an income producing portfolio. But at this rate, we could be there sooner rather than later.
The FED has their hands tied. They have played the "ahh it's fine let's just print more money" game for over a decade now, the results finally hit them in the face. I agree that the FED likes to see the markets green, but with these inflation numbers they simply are out of options. They have to fight inflation, and that means rates going up at least a little, and maybe even more importantly they will bring QE to an end and start unloading assets within the next couple of months. I do not predict massive moves on either front, the FED certainly won't crash the market, but they have to show that they are serious about fighting inflation. And then when they survive until the end of summer, they can claim victory since the inflation numbers will appear small in comparison to what we had in 2021.
Overall thoughts: stonks only go up in the long-term. A little correction here is healthy, and the FED moves mentioned above will be very healthy for the economy.
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Crimson
The "little correction" you refer to depends some on how you fared so far. Two of the major US indexes are in official -20% bear market territory and there have been no rate hikes. SPY faring better at only about -10%. If my port was down 25% already l know I'd be a little nervous, even if I was younger
Yes stocks do go up longterm, or more accurately indexes do. History also says a large percentage of the speculative stocks will never again see their high. Never is a long time.
How is that for fear mongering? I just happened to get lucky and took the trash out before they crashed. Most were not huge positions but many stocks I used to own are down 60%+. But the FAANG is doing ok so it's all good. I do wish they had raised rates a bit and killed the foolishness a year ago. Or at least six months ago when it was obviously necessary.
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It's a little correction so far, at least that is my view.
SP500 was this low last time in early October.
Dow was this low last time in the beginning of December.
Nasdaq was this low last time in May.
Nasdaq, as we all know, is very heavily into tech and other things with wonky valuations. Sure, anything extremely hype has been crushed. The other indexes have basically given up the gains of the past few months.
If someone is significantly down already, then it was simply due to being in excessively risky assets. The tech/hype bubble (yes, I just called it a bubble) is letting some air out. We all knew this day would come, we just didn't know if they would go up another 200% before they started falling. Everybody who didn't go all in on PE 600 companies is still fine.
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The top stocks in Nasdaq and S&P are the same for the most part. I was hesitant to build index positions because it was widely predicted these stocks would crash the index. Nope, the only thing holding the indexes up so far. This is a fascinating hobby.
I actually do know a lot of people who are already crushed because they had large positions in stocks like PYPL, BABA etc. They didn't own crazy stuff like meta stocks and Reddit trash. I love buying individual stocks but it can be tough. I give people hell for owning 100 stocks but that might prove to be smart this year.
I am watching crypto with interest. I think it will live but it only took a month to fail miserably as a hedge against equities. If stocks capitulate it likely will too. It would probably be healthy if everything pulls back. Other than the fact that many young investors will say it's rigged and give up for a decade. This is how boomers hoarded all the stock ownership.
Two words come to mind about 2022 so far..
Roller Coaster
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