Posts: 270
Threads: 50
Joined: Mar 2013
Reputation:
6
So I'm reading a lot of praise for IBM as a dividend growth stock. And I want to get excited about it, but I am having trouble. Can someone please explain the thesis? The yield is ok, I guess, but really not exciting. Is the idea that it is a huge value at today's prices?
My real concern is about its competitive advantage. It is an IT services company now, essentially, right? Is there a moat to speak of? Why is everyone so comfortable saying that IBM is going to be able to grow earnings in the long term going forward?
Posts: 1,530
Threads: 172
Joined: Mar 2013
Reputation:
27
I’m not that familiar with IBM, so I can’t speak about its moat or competitive advantages. I just ran it through my screen, though (it had not been on my watch list previously), so I can share what I see in the numbers.
IBM has raised its dividend for 18 years in a row now, giving it a very healthy dividend streak. Seems like the default raise lately is 40 cents each year, except for smaller raises in 2008 and 2009, for obvious reasons. The five-year dividend growth rate is very solid, around 14 percent, but by raising the dividend the same amount every year, the percentage increase will naturally decline. The raise from 2012 to 2013 was just over 12 percent. If they raise by another 40 cents in 2014, that will represent an increase of 10.8 percent.
The payout ratio is a nice low 25 percent, so there is plenty of room to accommodate the growing dividend, and perhaps even increase the dividend growth rate back up a bit.
IBM’s earnings per share for the last 5 or six years have increased very steadily. Almost suspiciously steadily, really, with double-digit increases from $7.15 in 2007 to $14.37 in 2012 (using GAAP numbers). Earnings increased steadily through the 2008 and 2009 turmoil. 2013 earnings look like they will beat 2012, but by a smaller margin than in recent years, and it might be the first earnings increase of less than 10 percent in quite some time.
At prices in the low to mid $170s per share, the P/E ratio is low, around 12. This is the lowest the P/E has gotten since some time in 2010.
If you like a high current dividend yield, that is perhaps the weak link in the chain of this story. At today’s prices you are looking at a yield of about 2.19 percent. Not too exciting, but also worth noting that this is the highest the yield has been since 2010. This might suggest a good entry point if you think the company’s earnings prospects going forward are fine.
I’d also love to hear from anyone who has some insight into the company’s moat and competitive advantages. If the story is good and suggest continued health and earnings growth, the numbers certainly support IBM as an excellent dividend growth prospect.
Posts: 152
Threads: 8
Joined: Sep 2013
Reputation:
3
(12-13-2013, 06:58 PM)Kerim Wrote: I’m not that familiar with IBM, so I can’t speak about its moat or competitive advantages. I just ran it through my screen, though (it had not been on my watch list previously), so I can share what I see in the numbers.
IBM has raised its dividend for 18 years in a row now, giving it a very healthy dividend streak. Seems like the default raise lately is 40 cents each year, except for smaller raises in 2008 and 2009, for obvious reasons. The five-year dividend growth rate is very solid, around 14 percent, but by raising the dividend the same amount every year, the percentage increase will naturally decline. The raise from 2012 to 2013 was just over 12 percent. If they raise by another 40 cents in 2014, that will represent an increase of 10.8 percent.
The payout ratio is a nice low 25 percent, so there is plenty of room to accommodate the growing dividend, and perhaps even increase the dividend growth rate back up a bit.
IBM’s earnings per share for the last 5 or six years have increased very steadily. Almost suspiciously steadily, really, with double-digit increases from $7.15 in 2007 to $14.37 in 2012 (using GAAP numbers). Earnings increased steadily through the 2008 and 2009 turmoil. 2013 earnings look like they will beat 2012, but by a smaller margin than in recent years, and it might be the first earnings increase of less than 10 percent in quite some time.
At prices in the low to mid $170s per share, the P/E ratio is low, around 12. This is the lowest the P/E has gotten since some time in 2010.
If you like a high current dividend yield, that is perhaps the weak link in the chain of this story. At today’s prices you are looking at a yield of about 2.19 percent. Not too exciting, but also worth noting that this is the highest the yield has been since 2010. This might suggest a good entry point if you think the company’s earnings prospects going forward are fine.
I’d also love to hear from anyone who has some insight into the company’s moat and competitive advantages. If the story is good and suggest continued health and earnings growth, the numbers certainly support IBM as an excellent dividend growth prospect.
I don't know much about IBM but I thought I read that their revenue has been declining for several years. Their EPS is going up mainly from share buy backs and expanding margins. I could be wrong though.
Posts: 270
Threads: 50
Joined: Mar 2013
Reputation:
6
Thanks for the thoughts. Still not sure I "get it", but IBM sure is having a nice pop today. Up about 3%, though I see no obvious headlines about why.
Posts: 7
Threads: 1
Joined: Nov 2013
Reputation:
0
(12-13-2013, 09:56 PM)fiveoh Wrote: I don't know much about IBM but I thought I read that their revenue has been declining for several years. Their EPS is going up mainly from share buy backs and expanding margins. I could be wrong though.
I believe you're exactly right. According to ValueLine (you can get a free report on every Dow stock anytime) their revenue has declined for 3 straight years (barely), going from 106B down to 102B, they are projecting 2014 revenues of 104.5B. However, the "revenue per share" has increased since 2009, from $73 to $94 ($98 projected for 2014)
Posts: 270
Threads: 50
Joined: Mar 2013
Reputation:
6
(12-18-2013, 05:35 PM)jmjor Wrote: I believe you're exactly right. According to ValueLine (you can get a free report on every Dow stock anytime) their revenue has declined for 3 straight years (barely), going from 106B down to 102B, they are projecting 2014 revenues of 104.5B. However, the "revenue per share" has increased since 2009, from $73 to $94 ($98 projected for 2014)
That seems like cause for worry, unless there is reason to believe that they'll be able to get revenues moving again after 2014. On the other hand, with their low payout ratio, they might be able to keep this up for quite a while more.
Posts: 2,398
Threads: 54
Joined: Jul 2013
Reputation:
35
Posts: 1,530
Threads: 172
Joined: Mar 2013
Reputation:
27
(12-13-2013, 06:58 PM)Kerim Wrote: I’m not that familiar with IBM, so I can’t speak about its moat or competitive advantages. I just ran it through my screen, though (it had not been on my watch list previously), so I can share what I see in the numbers.
IBM has raised its dividend for 18 years in a row now, giving it a very healthy dividend streak. Seems like the default raise lately is 40 cents each year, except for smaller raises in 2008 and 2009, for obvious reasons. The five-year dividend growth rate is very solid, around 14 percent, but by raising the dividend the same amount every year, the percentage increase will naturally decline. The raise from 2012 to 2013 was just over 12 percent. If they raise by another 40 cents in 2014, that will represent an increase of 10.8 percent.
The payout ratio is a nice low 25 percent, so there is plenty of room to accommodate the growing dividend, and perhaps even increase the dividend growth rate back up a bit.
IBM’s earnings per share for the last 5 or six years have increased very steadily. Almost suspiciously steadily, really, with double-digit increases from $7.15 in 2007 to $14.37 in 2012 (using GAAP numbers). Earnings increased steadily through the 2008 and 2009 turmoil. 2013 earnings look like they will beat 2012, but by a smaller margin than in recent years, and it might be the first earnings increase of less than 10 percent in quite some time.
At prices in the low to mid $170s per share, the P/E ratio is low, around 12. This is the lowest the P/E has gotten since some time in 2010.
If you like a high current dividend yield, that is perhaps the weak link in the chain of this story. At today’s prices you are looking at a yield of about 2.19 percent. Not too exciting, but also worth noting that this is the highest the yield has been since 2010. This might suggest a good entry point if you think the company’s earnings prospects going forward are fine.
I’d also love to hear from anyone who has some insight into the company’s moat and competitive advantages. If the story is good and suggest continued health and earnings growth, the numbers certainly support IBM as an excellent dividend growth prospect.
With IBM's very healthy dividend raise, I thought this would be a good moment to revisit the stock. Just about everything that I mentioned in the post above (from December) still holds true. In fact, the picture has even improved. The dividend raise, from 95 cents per quarter to $1.10 is larger than in recent years, working out to about a 15 percent raise on an annual basis. This is higher than the five-year average raise of a little over 14 percent. So rather than slowing down, the dividend growth rate is actually increased with this latest.
Even with the dividend raise, the payout ratio is still a very low 25 percent, as a result of the continued earnings per share increase. The EPS growth rate had slowed considerably in 2012 and 2013, but forecasts for 2014 show another big leap, to "at least" $17 per share, if guidance can be believed.
The dividend yield is still underwhelming, at about 2.25 percent at today's prices. But this may not be such a negative, given the strong earnings movement and dividend growth rate. Even with the price increase (it was in the mid $170s in December, and now sits at about $195), the P/E ratio is only around 13. That is a comfortable number, though with all of the big tech names in that ballpark, I'd hesitate to call it seriously undervalued. Still, with the P/Es of many favorite dividend growth companies at or above 20 these days, the tech multiples may be especially appealing.
When we discussed IBM last, several folks expressed concern that even though EPS growth was solid, it came mostly as a result of buybacks and that revenue growth was stalled. I just pulled the following revenue numbers from the 2013 Annual Report:
2009 $95.8 billion
2010 $99.9 billion
2011 $106.9 billion
2012 $104.5 billion
2013 $99.8 billion
$100 billion in revenue is nothing to sneeze at, but this one snapshot does suggest that revenues are moving in the wrong direction. I did not see a full year 2014 revenue number in the guidance, and the EPS guidance does leave room to conclude that the buyback is allowing them to make and achieve specific EPS targets. So I guess this is a reason to be cautious, even though otherwise things look rosy.
What do you guys think?
|
